Tweets

  • Sun Feb 19
    Watch out for the unknown unknowns. @sigrunda @MorningMacro https://t.co/nuhrQAYwE0
  • Sun Feb 19
    RT @MorningMacro: Weekend Edition: inspiring interview w/ @JonDanielsson @LSE_SRC on clever regulation, risky spots in global economy http…
  • Wed Feb 15
    Excellent speech by Alex Brazier at the @bankofengland here at LSE. Get it here https://t.co/FccdqMLgf1
  • Tue Feb 14
    RT @sigrunda: Today's @MorningMacro : @Financial_Orbit on market moves & @JonDanielsson dir. of @LSE_SRC on lessons learnt/not https://t.co…
  • Tue Feb 14
    RT @sigrunda: Tomorrow's @MorningMacro will talk to @Financial_Orbit on US & world economy & interview w/ Jón Daníelsson of @LSE_SRC -foll…
  • Sun Feb 12
    There are at least 3 channels for Brexit to increase systemic risk. But remains unlikely, but not impossible
  • Sun Feb 12
    @d_erdemlioglu yes, political, economic and systemic risk are all interdependent, and increase and/or decrease each other.
  • Sun Feb 12
    RT @Calvinn_Hobbes: https://t.co/XbIUORf9bX
  • Sat Feb 11
    Macro-prudential policies can destabilise if not implemented correctly, https://t.co/zPrTUlpHWU
  • Sat Feb 11
    The inability to incorporate political risk in macropru, and the resulting ineffectiveness, is its fatal flaw. https://t.co/KPJl0KDAgS
  • Sat Feb 11
    Political risk is mostly missing from the macroprudential debate, even if it is a major cause of systemic risk. https://t.co/KPJl0KDAgS
  • Sat Feb 11
    @angusarmstrong8 Breaking up the Union will increase some systemic risks and decrease other. The decrease might well be larger.
  • Sat Feb 11
    @Lutfeys No, most likely is neutral, Brexit neither increases or decreases systemic risk.
  • Sat Feb 11
    Does Brexit increase systemic risk. Probably not.
  • Sat Feb 11
    Risk-sensitive prudential regulation makes systemic financial crises sharper, larger, and more costly. https://t.co/FCQUiVK2O3
  •  

    Interview on þjóðbraut on Hringbraut

    I was interviewed on the new programme þjóðbraut on the Icelandic TV station Hringbraut. Only if you speak Icelandic.

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    The McNamara fallacy in financial policymaking

    One of the puzzling things about post-crisis financial policymaking is the dual understanding that we missed the excessive build-up of risk before 2007 in spite of having all the numbers right in front of us and at the same time founding the new world order on numbers and measurements. Have the policymakers fallen for the McNamara fallacy?

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    Farewell CoCos

    One can only welcome ECB’s rethinking on CoCos. They make banks’ capital structures unnecessarily complicated and create hidden risks.

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    Will Brexit give us the 1950s or Hong Kong?

    At the risk of overgeneralising, Brexiteers have two, rather different world views — 1950s Britain or the hip, modern, perhaps like Hong Kong. One certainly is more likely.

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    Of Brexit and regulations

    One often hears from Brexit supporters that too many regulations come from Brussels, that it would be much better if we could regulate ourselves. At least when it comes to finance, that argument just does not hold water.

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    Is MacroPru Procyclical?

    I know it is heretical to even suggest it, but is it possible, just possible that MacroPru could be procyclical?

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    IMF and Iceland

    I just spotted an interview with the IMF representatives to Iceland about their policy prescriptions, and it did make for an interesting reading.

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    Stability in Iceland

    I got to address the annual meeting of Business Iceland today on the topic of “On fiscal and monetary policy in Iceland”. The main theme was about what to do about the high economic volatility.

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    Of tail risk

    Suppose one cares about tail risk, what is the best way to estimate it? There are two, not mutually exclusive, ways; statistical and structural. Which is right?

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    What are risk models good for?

    One can endlessly criticize risk models, but that is just too nihilistic. So, what are the good for? There are three camps, the model believers, the rejectionists and the healthy skeptics. I’m going to make the case for the last below.

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    Perceived and actual risk

    Risk can be classified into what is predicted by models — perceived risk — and the the fundamental — underlying risk, actual risk.

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    Models and regulations and the political leadership

    Why do the regulatory authorities seemingly fall into the category of model believers, if not quite to the view that there must be one true model? Well, it is sort of inevitable the way the regulatory process works.

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    Why do we rely so much on models when we know they can't be trusted?

    There a lot of evidence that models are less than perfectly reliable. Why then do we rely so much on models in decision-making, and especially financial regulations? Because there are three types of people: Believers in true model, skeptics who accept model risk and nihilistic rejectionists.

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    Does a true model exist and does it matter?

    When designing models, the underlying assumption is often that the model captures the true data generating process. Does a true model exist? To me, the question is completely irrelevant.

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    The point of central banks

    Much of the analysis of the recent market turmoil is amusing. Take the Wall Street Journal, Why the Fed Is the Root of Much Market Turmoil: Fed is a key reason markets have plunged and risk of recession rising . Here is a quote:

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    Impact of the recent market turmoil on risk measures

    Last January I looked at how the Swiss FX shock affected the most popular risk measures. Events of the past week give us another interesting test. My daily risk forecast shows the various risk measures for a number of assets, but focus on the SP-500, and the following picture taken from the site today:

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    Objective functions of macro-prudential regulations

    I have been in a conference for the past few days, and have seen a few presentations on macro-pru type regulations. I was bothered by this work.

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    Risky business: Finding the balance between financial stability and risk

    Our LSE blog It is important that we understand and do something about systemic risk. The problem is that we desire two incompatible things simultaneously: we wish the financial system to be safe; but we also want to finance risky economic activity.

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    Regulators could be responsible for next financial crash

    LSE report warns that forcing financial institutions to forecast risk in the same way could mean they will all end up being caught unawares.
    A writeup in the Telegraph about our Magazine.

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    How Iceland is falling behind. On Sprengisandur

    I got to be on the radio show Sprengisandur, if you understand Icelandic. After discussing Greece, got asked about Iceland. The Icelandic authorities could have made some of the same mistakes as the Greek government did in its crisis, but overall, the three governments since then, have done a decent job. All, in their own way, paving the way for prosperity.

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    Greece on Sprengisandur

    I got to talk about Greece on the radio show Sprengisandur, if you understand Icelandic.

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    Market moves that are supposed to happen every half-decade keep happening

    May 14, 2015
    Bloomberg today had an interesting piece, called Market Moves That Are Supposed to Happen Every Half-Decade Keep Happening. Here is their self-described “terribly simplistic list”

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    Capital controls

    May 12, 2015
    I got to participate in a discussion on capital controls, sponsored by Samtök Atvinnulífsins which could be translated as the Icelandic Chamber of Commerce. The event was held in the lovely Harpa. If you read Icelandic, the writeup is here with my slides.

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    What do ES and VaR say about the tails

    So, does ES capture tail risk, but VaR not? Therefore the Basel committee is correct, and we all should use ES. Is that true?

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    The Danish FX event

    Denmark had a small FX event on March 20, in the context of the Swiss FX shock, it is not much a of an event, but it does reinforce stereotypes.

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    On the Swiss FX shock

    Just looked again at the what I did on the Swiss FX shock, looking at how the various risk measures performed in the days after the event, and also looking at the risk of the inverse FX.

    The original analysis just looked at the risk of the Franc appreciating, but why not look at the risk of the euro appreciating.

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    My bloggs on VoxEU