Systemic consequences of Brexit

I got to present on the systemic risk consequences of Brexit in a SUERF conference. The slides can be downloaded here. The main conclusions are:

  1. Systemic consequences of Brexit possible but unlikely
  2. Systemic crises happen when we suddenly question existing assumptions for how the world works
  3. It is hard to identify what will go wrong, in advance
  4. Soft Brexit may increase systemic risk
  5. Brexit may result in lower systemic risk if the regulatory landscape fragments and globalism is reduced
  6. Hard Brexit and a tough EU stand in the negotiations may lower systemic risk
  7. Unknown unknowns are the threat
  8. They may lurk in the legal plumbing and equivalence