The cost of Brexit is £ 43 billion.
Last updated: 11 November 2019

Economic growth


Real economic growth in the 12 quarters before and after the second quarter 2016.

The economy

Our real growth was 1.2% higher than EU27's, now it is 1.9% lower
If we had sustained the pre-Brexit growth, our GDP would be £ 43 billion higher than now
Our GDP growth rank amongst the EU states was 12 now it is 23
Our GDP was 20.1% of EU27 GDP (in euros), now it is 18% ,a drop of 11.8%

Brexit disappointments

In all the disappointments about Brexit, one stands out — the inability of the libertarian Brexiteers to outline a coherent vision of what Brexit will accomplish. They used to see rational economic management as as a virtue, now what matters is culture.
[For more see "the Brexit culture war"]

Real GDP growth before and after Brexit vote relative to June 2016

By looking at real economic growth in the 12 quarters before and after Brexit will in June 2016 (second quarter), it took almost a year for the impact of Brexit to be felt, but growth has since then leveled off significantly. If we had been able to sustain the pre-Brexit growth after the vote, our GDP would be 2% higher, meaning that our GDP would be £ 43 billion higher than now

Rank

In the 12 quarters before the Brexit vote, the real economic growth in Britain was the 12th highest, now it is the 23rd, out of the 26 countries with data.

GDP ranking before the Brexit vote

GDP ranking after the Brexit vote


Brexit bet

I made a bet with a friend on whether Brexit would improve the British economy or not, relative to the European Union. The terms of the bet are in the following pictures, and the starting point is the second quarter of 2018.

UK GDP as fraction of EU27 GDP relative to last quarter before Brexit vote

UK GDP per capita as fraction of EU27's relative to last quarter before Brexit vote


So

> Mon voisin du dessus
> Un certain Blaise Pascal,
> M'a gentiment donné
> Ce conseil amical :
> «Mettez-vous à genoux
> Priez et implorez,
> Faites semblant de croire
> Et bientôt vous croirez.»
Advice to Pascal, loosely translated as "Kneel, pray, make it look as if you believe and soon you will believe".

© All rights reserved, Jon Danielsson, 2019