Daily risk forecast

Average risk

The forecasts are one trading into the future from the last observation. 2018-08-17 Bitcoin, FTSE, SP-500, USD/EUR, JPY/EUR, GBP/EUR, CHF/EUR. Market cap

Risk over time

Average risk over the past month, quarter and year. Market cap


19 March 2018

Do cryptocurrencies live up to the hype? Are they the future? Ponzi schemes or just a cult? This follows up from Cryptocurrencies don’t make sense.


Sound and fury signifying nothing except newspaper headlines

10 February 2018

As the financial press had it, the financial markets had quite a dramatic week.

Put it in context, how dramatic was it?


on VoxEU.org

March 26, 2018

Low risk as a predictor of financial crises

Reliable indicators of future financial crises are important for policymakers and practitioners. While most indicators consider an observation of high volatility as a warning signal, this column argues that such an alarm comes too late, arriving only once a crisis is already under way. A better warning is provided by low volatility, which is a reliable indication of an increased likelihood of a future crisis.

February 13, 2018

Cryptocurrencies don't make sense

Cryptocurrencies are supposedly a new and superior form of money and investments – the way of the future. The author of this column, however, does not see the point of cryptocurrencies, finding them no better than existing fiat money or good investments.