Why Risk is so Hard to Measure

Accuracy

Setup

The number of simulations is 2e7, and this is done across a range of \(alpha\) and \(N\). Distributions are t, Pareto and t-garch.

Student-t VaR

VaR t
N alpha p bias se 99% conf
200 days 2 99.9% 0.79 2.05 [0.19,6.31]
200 days 2 99.5% 1.78 4.60 [0.42,14.20]
200 days 2 99% 1.26 0.67 [0.50,4.46]
200 days 2 97.5% 1.09 0.29 [0.60,2.21]
200 days 2 95% 1.04 0.20 [0.66,1.71]
200 days 2 90% 1.02 0.15 [0.69,1.50]
200 days 2.5 99.9% 0.78 0.79 [0.25,4.39]
200 days 2.5 99.5% 1.50 1.53 [0.49,8.47]
200 days 2.5 99% 1.19 0.48 [0.56,3.36]
200 days 2.5 97.5% 1.07 0.24 [0.64,1.94]
200 days 2.5 95% 1.04 0.17 [0.69,1.59]
200 days 2.5 90% 1.02 0.14 [0.71,1.44]
200 days 3 99.9% 0.78 0.55 [0.31,3.45]
200 days 3 99.5% 1.37 0.96 [0.53,6.04]
200 days 3 99% 1.15 0.38 [0.60,2.81]
200 days 3 97.5% 1.06 0.21 [0.67,1.78]
200 days 3 95% 1.03 0.15 [0.71,1.52]
200 days 3 90% 1.02 0.13 [0.72,1.40]
200 days 4 99.9% 0.80 0.37 [0.38,2.58]
200 days 4 99.5% 1.25 0.57 [0.59,4.02]
200 days 4 99% 1.11 0.29 [0.64,2.28]
200 days 4 97.5% 1.04 0.17 [0.70,1.62]
200 days 4 95% 1.02 0.13 [0.73,1.43]
200 days 4 90% 1.02 0.12 [0.74,1.36]
200 days 5 99.9% 0.82 0.30 [0.43,2.19]
200 days 5 99.5% 1.20 0.43 [0.63,3.20]
200 days 5 99% 1.09 0.24 [0.67,2.03]
200 days 5 97.5% 1.04 0.15 [0.72,1.54]
200 days 5 95% 1.02 0.12 [0.74,1.39]
200 days 5 90% 1.01 0.11 [0.74,1.33]
200 days 6 99.9% 0.83 0.26 [0.46,1.97]
200 days 6 99.5% 1.16 0.36 [0.65,2.77]
200 days 6 99% 1.08 0.22 [0.69,1.88]
200 days 6 97.5% 1.03 0.14 [0.73,1.49]
200 days 6 95% 1.02 0.12 [0.75,1.37]
200 days 6 90% 1.01 0.11 [0.75,1.32]
300 days 2 99.9% 0.97 2.09 [0.23,7.76]
300 days 2 99.5% 2.18 4.71 [0.52,17.45]
300 days 2 99% 1.15 0.43 [0.55,3.02]
300 days 2 97.5% 1.10 0.24 [0.67,1.97]
300 days 2 95% 1.03 0.16 [0.71,1.53]
300 days 2 90% 1.02 0.12 [0.74,1.38]
300 days 2.5 99.9% 0.92 0.95 [0.30,5.16]
300 days 2.5 99.5% 1.77 1.83 [0.59,9.96]
300 days 2.5 99% 1.11 0.33 [0.61,2.46]
300 days 2.5 97.5% 1.08 0.20 [0.71,1.76]
300 days 2.5 95% 1.02 0.14 [0.73,1.44]
300 days 2.5 90% 1.01 0.11 [0.76,1.34]
300 days 3 99.9% 0.90 0.63 [0.36,3.95]
300 days 3 99.5% 1.58 1.10 [0.63,6.90]
300 days 3 99% 1.09 0.27 [0.64,2.16]
300 days 3 97.5% 1.07 0.17 [0.73,1.64]
300 days 3 95% 1.02 0.12 [0.75,1.39]
300 days 3 90% 1.01 0.11 [0.77,1.31]
300 days 4 99.9% 0.90 0.41 [0.44,2.86]
300 days 4 99.5% 1.40 0.63 [0.68,4.45]
300 days 4 99% 1.07 0.21 [0.69,1.85]
300 days 4 97.5% 1.06 0.14 [0.76,1.51]
300 days 4 95% 1.02 0.11 [0.77,1.34]
300 days 4 90% 1.01 0.10 [0.78,1.28]
300 days 5 99.9% 0.90 0.32 [0.49,2.38]
300 days 5 99.5% 1.31 0.47 [0.71,3.47]
300 days 5 99% 1.06 0.18 [0.72,1.70]
300 days 5 97.5% 1.05 0.13 [0.78,1.45]
300 days 5 95% 1.01 0.10 [0.78,1.31]
300 days 5 90% 1.01 0.09 [0.79,1.27]
300 days 6 99.9% 0.90 0.27 [0.52,2.11]
300 days 6 99.5% 1.27 0.38 [0.73,2.97]
300 days 6 99% 1.05 0.16 [0.73,1.62]
300 days 6 97.5% 1.04 0.12 [0.79,1.41]
300 days 6 95% 1.01 0.10 [0.79,1.29]
300 days 6 90% 1.01 0.09 [0.79,1.26]
2 years 2 99.9% 1.25 4.31 [0.30,10.02]
2 years 2 99.5% 1.41 0.74 [0.57,4.95]
2 years 2 99% 1.09 0.28 [0.62,2.18]
2 years 2 97.5% 1.06 0.17 [0.72,1.62]
2 years 2 95% 1.02 0.12 [0.76,1.38]
2 years 2 90% 1.01 0.09 [0.79,1.28]
2 years 2.5 99.9% 1.13 1.14 [0.38,6.33]
2 years 2.5 99.5% 1.30 0.51 [0.63,3.63]
2 years 2.5 99% 1.06 0.22 [0.67,1.89]
2 years 2.5 97.5% 1.05 0.14 [0.75,1.50]
2 years 2.5 95% 1.01 0.10 [0.78,1.32]
2 years 2.5 90% 1.01 0.09 [0.81,1.25]
2 years 3 99.9% 1.07 0.75 [0.44,4.69]
2 years 3 99.5% 1.24 0.40 [0.67,2.98]
2 years 3 99% 1.05 0.19 [0.70,1.73]
2 years 3 97.5% 1.04 0.12 [0.78,1.43]
2 years 3 95% 1.01 0.09 [0.80,1.29]
2 years 3 90% 1.01 0.08 [0.81,1.23]
2 years 4 99.9% 1.03 0.46 [0.51,3.25]
2 years 4 99.5% 1.18 0.29 [0.72,2.35]
2 years 4 99% 1.04 0.15 [0.74,1.55]
2 years 4 97.5% 1.03 0.11 [0.80,1.35]
2 years 4 95% 1.01 0.08 [0.82,1.25]
2 years 4 90% 1.01 0.07 [0.83,1.21]
2 years 5 99.9% 1.01 0.35 [0.56,2.64]
2 years 5 99.5% 1.14 0.23 [0.75,2.06]
2 years 5 99% 1.03 0.13 [0.76,1.47]
2 years 5 97.5% 1.03 0.09 [0.82,1.31]
2 years 5 95% 1.01 0.08 [0.83,1.23]
2 years 5 90% 1.01 0.07 [0.83,1.20]
2 years 6 99.9% 1.00 0.29 [0.60,2.31]
2 years 6 99.5% 1.13 0.20 [0.77,1.90]
2 years 6 99% 1.03 0.12 [0.78,1.42]
2 years 6 97.5% 1.03 0.09 [0.83,1.29]
2 years 6 95% 1.01 0.07 [0.83,1.21]
2 years 6 90% 1.01 0.07 [0.84,1.19]
4 years 2 99.9% 1.77 3.77 [0.43,14.13]
4 years 2 99.5% 1.08 0.28 [0.62,2.16]
4 years 2 99% 1.04 0.18 [0.70,1.65]
4 years 2 97.5% 1.02 0.11 [0.78,1.36]
4 years 2 95% 1.01 0.08 [0.82,1.25]
4 years 2 90% 1.00 0.07 [0.85,1.19]
4 years 2.5 99.9% 1.49 1.51 [0.51,8.37]
4 years 2.5 99.5% 1.06 0.22 [0.68,1.87]
4 years 2.5 99% 1.03 0.15 [0.74,1.51]
4 years 2.5 97.5% 1.01 0.09 [0.81,1.29]
4 years 2.5 95% 1.01 0.07 [0.84,1.21]
4 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.06 [0.86,1.17]
4 years 3 99.9% 1.36 0.93 [0.56,5.91]
4 years 3 99.5% 1.05 0.18 [0.71,1.70]
4 years 3 99% 1.03 0.12 [0.77,1.43]
4 years 3 97.5% 1.01 0.08 [0.82,1.25]
4 years 3 95% 1.01 0.07 [0.85,1.19]
4 years 3 90% 1.00 0.06 [0.86,1.16]
4 years 4 99.9% 1.24 0.54 [0.63,3.87]
4 years 4 99.5% 1.04 0.14 [0.76,1.53]
4 years 4 99% 1.02 0.10 [0.80,1.34]
4 years 4 97.5% 1.01 0.07 [0.84,1.21]
4 years 4 95% 1.00 0.06 [0.87,1.17]
4 years 4 90% 1.00 0.05 [0.87,1.14]
4 years 5 99.9% 1.18 0.40 [0.67,3.04]
4 years 5 99.5% 1.03 0.12 [0.78,1.44]
4 years 5 99% 1.02 0.09 [0.82,1.29]
4 years 5 97.5% 1.01 0.06 [0.86,1.19]
4 years 5 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.87,1.15]
4 years 5 90% 1.00 0.05 [0.88,1.14]
4 years 6 99.9% 1.15 0.32 [0.70,2.60]
4 years 6 99.5% 1.03 0.11 [0.80,1.38]
4 years 6 99% 1.01 0.08 [0.83,1.26]
4 years 6 97.5% 1.01 0.06 [0.86,1.18]
4 years 6 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.88,1.14]
4 years 6 90% 1.00 0.05 [0.88,1.13]
10 years 2 99.9% 1.40 0.74 [0.58,4.92]
10 years 2 99.5% 1.05 0.16 [0.74,1.60]
10 years 2 99% 1.02 0.11 [0.79,1.34]
10 years 2 97.5% 1.01 0.07 [0.85,1.21]
10 years 2 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.88,1.15]
10 years 2 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.11]
10 years 2.5 99.9% 1.29 0.50 [0.64,3.59]
10 years 2.5 99.5% 1.04 0.13 [0.78,1.46]
10 years 2.5 99% 1.01 0.09 [0.82,1.28]
10 years 2.5 97.5% 1.01 0.06 [0.87,1.17]
10 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.89,1.13]
10 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.10]
10 years 3 99.9% 1.23 0.39 [0.69,2.92]
10 years 3 99.5% 1.04 0.11 [0.81,1.38]
10 years 3 99% 1.01 0.08 [0.84,1.23]
10 years 3 97.5% 1.01 0.05 [0.88,1.15]
10 years 3 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.11]
10 years 3 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.10]
10 years 4 99.9% 1.16 0.27 [0.74,2.27]
10 years 4 99.5% 1.03 0.09 [0.84,1.30]
10 years 4 99% 1.01 0.06 [0.86,1.19]
10 years 4 97.5% 1.01 0.04 [0.90,1.13]
10 years 4 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.10]
10 years 4 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.09]
10 years 5 99.9% 1.13 0.21 [0.78,1.97]
10 years 5 99.5% 1.02 0.08 [0.86,1.25]
10 years 5 99% 1.01 0.06 [0.88,1.16]
10 years 5 97.5% 1.01 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
10 years 5 95% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.09]
10 years 5 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.08]
10 years 6 99.9% 1.11 0.18 [0.80,1.80]
10 years 6 99.5% 1.02 0.07 [0.87,1.22]
10 years 6 99% 1.01 0.05 [0.89,1.15]
10 years 6 97.5% 1.01 0.04 [0.91,1.11]
10 years 6 95% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.09]
10 years 6 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.08]
50 years 2 99.9% 1.05 0.16 [0.74,1.59]
50 years 2 99.5% 1.01 0.07 [0.86,1.20]
50 years 2 99% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.13]
50 years 2 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.08]
50 years 2 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.06]
50 years 2 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.05]
50 years 2.5 99.9% 1.04 0.13 [0.78,1.45]
50 years 2.5 99.5% 1.01 0.05 [0.88,1.16]
50 years 2.5 99% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.11]
50 years 2.5 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.07]
50 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.05]
50 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
50 years 3 99.9% 1.03 0.11 [0.81,1.37]
50 years 3 99.5% 1.01 0.05 [0.90,1.14]
50 years 3 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.09]
50 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.06]
50 years 3 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.05]
50 years 3 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
50 years 4 99.9% 1.03 0.08 [0.85,1.28]
50 years 4 99.5% 1.01 0.04 [0.92,1.11]
50 years 4 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.08]
50 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.05]
50 years 4 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
50 years 4 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
50 years 5 99.9% 1.02 0.07 [0.87,1.23]
50 years 5 99.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
50 years 5 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.07]
50 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
50 years 5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
50 years 5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
50 years 6 99.9% 1.02 0.06 [0.89,1.20]
50 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.08]
50 years 6 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
50 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
50 years 6 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
50 years 6 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.04]
200 years 2 99.9% 1.01 0.07 [0.84,1.22]
200 years 2 99.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.09]
200 years 2 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.06]
200 years 2 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
200 years 2 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 2 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 2.5 99.9% 1.01 0.06 [0.87,1.17]
200 years 2.5 99.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.07]
200 years 2.5 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.05]
200 years 2.5 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 3 99.9% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.14]
200 years 3 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
200 years 3 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
200 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 3 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 3 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 4 99.9% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.11]
200 years 4 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
200 years 4 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.04]
200 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.03]
200 years 4 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 4 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 5 99.9% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
200 years 5 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
200 years 5 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 5 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 6 99.9% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.08]
200 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
200 years 6 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 6 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 6 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 2 99.9% 1.00 0.05 [0.88,1.15]
400 years 2 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.06]
400 years 2 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
400 years 2 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
400 years 2 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 2 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 2.5 99.9% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
400 years 2.5 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.05]
400 years 2.5 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.04]
400 years 2.5 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 3 99.9% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.10]
400 years 3 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
400 years 3 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
400 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 3 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 3 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 4 99.9% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.07]
400 years 4 99.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
400 years 4 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.03]
400 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 4 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 4 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 5 99.9% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
400 years 5 99.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
400 years 5 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 5 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 6 99.9% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
400 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
400 years 6 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 6 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 6 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]

Student-t ES

ES t
N alpha p bias se 99% conf
200 days 2 99.9% 0.40 1.02 [0.09,3.15]
200 days 2 99.5% 0.89 2.29 [0.21,7.06]
200 days 2 99% 0.94 1.66 [0.28,5.65]
200 days 2 97.5% 0.98 1.09 [0.39,4.11]
200 days 2 95% 0.99 0.79 [0.48,3.28]
200 days 2 90% 0.99 0.59 [0.56,2.68]
200 days 2.5 99.9% 0.47 0.48 [0.15,2.63]
200 days 2.5 99.5% 0.89 0.91 [0.29,5.03]
200 days 2.5 99% 0.94 0.67 [0.37,3.96]
200 days 2.5 97.5% 0.97 0.44 [0.48,2.88]
200 days 2.5 95% 0.99 0.32 [0.56,2.32]
200 days 2.5 90% 0.99 0.24 [0.63,1.95]
200 days 3 99.9% 0.52 0.36 [0.20,2.29]
200 days 3 99.5% 0.90 0.63 [0.35,3.96]
200 days 3 99% 0.94 0.47 [0.43,3.13]
200 days 3 97.5% 0.98 0.32 [0.53,2.32]
200 days 3 95% 0.99 0.24 [0.61,1.92]
200 days 3 90% 0.99 0.18 [0.67,1.66]
200 days 4 99.9% 0.59 0.27 [0.28,1.91]
200 days 4 99.5% 0.91 0.42 [0.43,2.92]
200 days 4 99% 0.95 0.32 [0.51,2.37]
200 days 4 97.5% 0.98 0.22 [0.60,1.85]
200 days 4 95% 0.99 0.17 [0.66,1.60]
200 days 4 90% 0.99 0.14 [0.71,1.44]
200 days 5 99.9% 0.64 0.23 [0.34,1.72]
200 days 5 99.5% 0.92 0.33 [0.48,2.46]
200 days 5 99% 0.95 0.26 [0.55,2.04]
200 days 5 97.5% 0.98 0.18 [0.64,1.65]
200 days 5 95% 0.99 0.15 [0.69,1.47]
200 days 5 90% 0.99 0.12 [0.73,1.36]
200 days 6 99.9% 0.67 0.21 [0.38,1.60]
200 days 6 99.5% 0.92 0.29 [0.52,2.19]
200 days 6 99% 0.96 0.23 [0.58,1.85]
200 days 6 97.5% 0.98 0.16 [0.66,1.55]
200 days 6 95% 0.99 0.13 [0.71,1.41]
200 days 6 90% 0.99 0.11 [0.74,1.32]
300 days 2 99.9% 0.48 1.05 [0.12,3.87]
300 days 2 99.5% 1.09 2.34 [0.26,8.68]
300 days 2 99% 0.96 1.17 [0.34,4.91]
300 days 2 97.5% 1.02 0.82 [0.46,3.80]
300 days 2 95% 0.99 0.56 [0.54,2.88]
300 days 2 90% 1.00 0.42 [0.61,2.38]
300 days 2.5 99.9% 0.55 0.57 [0.18,3.09]
300 days 2.5 99.5% 1.05 1.08 [0.35,5.91]
300 days 2.5 99% 0.96 0.56 [0.42,3.42]
300 days 2.5 97.5% 1.01 0.39 [0.54,2.64]
300 days 2.5 95% 0.99 0.27 [0.61,2.06]
300 days 2.5 90% 1.00 0.20 [0.68,1.76]
300 days 3 99.9% 0.60 0.42 [0.24,2.62]
300 days 3 99.5% 1.03 0.72 [0.41,4.52]
300 days 3 99% 0.96 0.39 [0.49,2.71]
300 days 3 97.5% 1.01 0.27 [0.60,2.14]
300 days 3 95% 0.99 0.19 [0.66,1.73]
300 days 3 90% 1.00 0.15 [0.71,1.52]
300 days 4 99.9% 0.66 0.30 [0.32,2.12]
300 days 4 99.5% 1.02 0.46 [0.50,3.24]
300 days 4 99% 0.97 0.27 [0.56,2.09]
300 days 4 97.5% 1.00 0.19 [0.66,1.73]
300 days 4 95% 0.99 0.14 [0.71,1.47]
300 days 4 90% 0.99 0.11 [0.75,1.35]
300 days 5 99.9% 0.71 0.25 [0.38,1.86]
300 days 5 99.5% 1.01 0.36 [0.55,2.67]
300 days 5 99% 0.97 0.22 [0.61,1.82]
300 days 5 97.5% 1.00 0.16 [0.70,1.56]
300 days 5 95% 0.99 0.12 [0.74,1.37]
300 days 5 90% 0.99 0.10 [0.78,1.29]
300 days 6 99.9% 0.73 0.22 [0.42,1.72]
300 days 6 99.5% 1.01 0.30 [0.58,2.35]
300 days 6 99% 0.97 0.19 [0.64,1.68]
300 days 6 97.5% 1.00 0.14 [0.72,1.47]
300 days 6 95% 0.99 0.11 [0.76,1.32]
300 days 6 90% 0.99 0.09 [0.79,1.25]
2 years 2 99.9% 0.63 2.15 [0.15,5.00]
2 years 2 99.5% 1.05 2.45 [0.32,6.33]
2 years 2 99% 0.98 1.41 [0.40,4.10]
2 years 2 97.5% 1.01 0.95 [0.53,3.13]
2 years 2 95% 0.99 0.66 [0.60,2.47]
2 years 2 90% 1.00 0.48 [0.67,2.08]
2 years 2.5 99.9% 0.67 0.68 [0.23,3.79]
2 years 2.5 99.5% 1.03 0.72 [0.42,4.31]
2 years 2.5 99% 0.98 0.43 [0.50,2.85]
2 years 2.5 97.5% 1.01 0.29 [0.61,2.21]
2 years 2.5 95% 0.99 0.21 [0.68,1.80]
2 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.15 [0.73,1.57]
2 years 3 99.9% 0.71 0.49 [0.29,3.11]
2 years 3 99.5% 1.02 0.50 [0.48,3.35]
2 years 3 99% 0.98 0.31 [0.56,2.29]
2 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.21 [0.66,1.83]
2 years 3 95% 0.99 0.15 [0.72,1.54]
2 years 3 90% 1.00 0.11 [0.77,1.39]
2 years 4 99.9% 0.76 0.34 [0.38,2.40]
2 years 4 99.5% 1.01 0.33 [0.57,2.47]
2 years 4 99% 0.98 0.21 [0.63,1.81]
2 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.15 [0.72,1.52]
2 years 4 95% 0.99 0.11 [0.77,1.35]
2 years 4 90% 1.00 0.09 [0.80,1.26]
2 years 5 99.9% 0.79 0.28 [0.44,2.07]
2 years 5 99.5% 1.01 0.26 [0.61,2.09]
2 years 5 99% 0.98 0.17 [0.67,1.61]
2 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.12 [0.75,1.41]
2 years 5 95% 0.99 0.09 [0.79,1.28]
2 years 5 90% 1.00 0.08 [0.82,1.22]
2 years 6 99.9% 0.81 0.24 [0.48,1.87]
2 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.22 [0.65,1.89]
2 years 6 99% 0.98 0.15 [0.70,1.50]
2 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.11 [0.77,1.34]
2 years 6 95% 0.99 0.08 [0.81,1.24]
2 years 6 90% 1.00 0.07 [0.83,1.19]
4 years 2 99.9% 0.89 1.88 [0.22,7.06]
4 years 2 99.5% 0.97 0.91 [0.41,4.08]
4 years 2 99% 0.99 0.66 [0.50,3.23]
4 years 2 97.5% 0.99 0.43 [0.61,2.45]
4 years 2 95% 1.00 0.31 [0.68,2.05]
4 years 2 90% 1.00 0.23 [0.74,1.77]
4 years 2.5 99.9% 0.89 0.90 [0.30,5.01]
4 years 2.5 99.5% 0.98 0.43 [0.50,2.84]
4 years 2.5 99% 0.99 0.31 [0.59,2.27]
4 years 2.5 97.5% 0.99 0.20 [0.69,1.78]
4 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.15 [0.75,1.54]
4 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.11 [0.80,1.39]
4 years 3 99.9% 0.90 0.61 [0.37,3.92]
4 years 3 99.5% 0.98 0.30 [0.57,2.27]
4 years 3 99% 0.99 0.22 [0.65,1.87]
4 years 3 97.5% 0.99 0.14 [0.73,1.52]
4 years 3 95% 1.00 0.11 [0.79,1.36]
4 years 3 90% 1.00 0.08 [0.83,1.26]
4 years 4 99.9% 0.91 0.40 [0.47,2.86]
4 years 4 99.5% 0.98 0.20 [0.64,1.79]
4 years 4 99% 0.99 0.15 [0.71,1.54]
4 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.10 [0.79,1.33]
4 years 4 95% 1.00 0.08 [0.83,1.24]
4 years 4 90% 1.00 0.06 [0.86,1.18]
4 years 5 99.9% 0.92 0.31 [0.53,2.38]
4 years 5 99.5% 0.98 0.16 [0.69,1.59]
4 years 5 99% 0.99 0.12 [0.75,1.40]
4 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.08 [0.81,1.26]
4 years 5 95% 1.00 0.07 [0.85,1.19]
4 years 5 90% 1.00 0.05 [0.87,1.15]
4 years 6 99.9% 0.93 0.26 [0.57,2.11]
4 years 6 99.5% 0.98 0.14 [0.72,1.48]
4 years 6 99% 0.99 0.11 [0.77,1.34]
4 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.07 [0.83,1.22]
4 years 6 95% 1.00 0.06 [0.86,1.17]
4 years 6 90% 1.00 0.05 [0.88,1.13]
10 years 2 99.9% 1.05 1.73 [0.33,6.30]
10 years 2 99.5% 1.01 0.68 [0.53,3.11]
10 years 2 99% 0.99 0.47 [0.61,2.44]
10 years 2 97.5% 1.00 0.31 [0.71,1.94]
10 years 2 95% 1.00 0.22 [0.77,1.67]
10 years 2 90% 1.00 0.16 [0.82,1.49]
10 years 2.5 99.9% 1.03 0.72 [0.42,4.29]
10 years 2.5 99.5% 1.01 0.28 [0.63,2.18]
10 years 2.5 99% 1.00 0.20 [0.70,1.77]
10 years 2.5 97.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.78,1.48]
10 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.09 [0.83,1.33]
10 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.07 [0.86,1.23]
10 years 3 99.9% 1.02 0.49 [0.50,3.31]
10 years 3 99.5% 1.00 0.20 [0.68,1.79]
10 years 3 99% 1.00 0.14 [0.75,1.51]
10 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.09 [0.82,1.31]
10 years 3 95% 1.00 0.07 [0.86,1.22]
10 years 3 90% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.16]
10 years 4 99.9% 1.01 0.32 [0.59,2.43]
10 years 4 99.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.75,1.48]
10 years 4 99% 1.00 0.10 [0.80,1.31]
10 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.86,1.20]
10 years 4 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.14]
10 years 4 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.11]
10 years 5 99.9% 1.01 0.24 [0.65,2.04]
10 years 5 99.5% 1.00 0.11 [0.79,1.36]
10 years 5 99% 1.00 0.08 [0.83,1.24]
10 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.05 [0.88,1.16]
10 years 5 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.12]
10 years 5 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.09]
10 years 6 99.9% 1.00 0.20 [0.68,1.83]
10 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.09 [0.81,1.30]
10 years 6 99% 1.00 0.07 [0.85,1.20]
10 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.14]
10 years 6 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.10]
10 years 6 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.08]
50 years 2 99.9% 1.01 0.68 [0.54,3.10]
50 years 2 99.5% 1.00 0.31 [0.72,1.93]
50 years 2 99% 1.00 0.22 [0.78,1.66]
50 years 2 97.5% 1.00 0.14 [0.84,1.43]
50 years 2 95% 1.00 0.10 [0.88,1.31]
50 years 2 90% 1.00 0.08 [0.90,1.22]
50 years 2.5 99.9% 1.01 0.28 [0.63,2.17]
50 years 2.5 99.5% 1.00 0.12 [0.79,1.46]
50 years 2.5 99% 1.00 0.09 [0.84,1.31]
50 years 2.5 97.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.89,1.19]
50 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.13]
50 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.10]
50 years 3 99.9% 1.00 0.19 [0.69,1.78]
50 years 3 99.5% 1.00 0.09 [0.83,1.30]
50 years 3 99% 1.00 0.06 [0.87,1.20]
50 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
50 years 3 95% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
50 years 3 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.07]
50 years 4 99.9% 1.00 0.13 [0.76,1.47]
50 years 4 99.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.87,1.18]
50 years 4 99% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.13]
50 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.08]
50 years 4 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
50 years 4 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
50 years 5 99.9% 1.00 0.10 [0.80,1.34]
50 years 5 99.5% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.14]
50 years 5 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.10]
50 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.07]
50 years 5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.05]
50 years 5 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
50 years 6 99.9% 1.00 0.08 [0.83,1.28]
50 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
50 years 6 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.08]
50 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
50 years 6 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
50 years 6 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
200 years 2 99.9% 1.00 0.31 [0.69,2.03]
200 years 2 99.5% 1.00 0.14 [0.83,1.47]
200 years 2 99% 1.00 0.10 [0.87,1.34]
200 years 2 97.5% 1.00 0.07 [0.91,1.22]
200 years 2 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.93,1.16]
200 years 2 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.95,1.11]
200 years 2.5 99.9% 1.00 0.14 [0.77,1.52]
200 years 2.5 99.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.88,1.21]
200 years 2.5 99% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.15]
200 years 2.5 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.09]
200 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
200 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
200 years 3 99.9% 1.00 0.09 [0.81,1.33]
200 years 3 99.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.13]
200 years 3 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
200 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
200 years 3 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
200 years 3 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 4 99.9% 1.00 0.06 [0.86,1.20]
200 years 4 99.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.08]
200 years 4 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
200 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
200 years 4 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 4 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 5 99.9% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.15]
200 years 5 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.06]
200 years 5 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
200 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 5 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 6 99.9% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.12]
200 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.05]
200 years 6 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
200 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 6 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 6 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 2 99.9% 1.00 0.21 [0.76,1.73]
400 years 2 99.5% 1.00 0.10 [0.87,1.33]
400 years 2 99% 1.00 0.07 [0.90,1.24]
400 years 2 97.5% 1.00 0.05 [0.93,1.15]
400 years 2 95% 1.00 0.03 [0.95,1.11]
400 years 2 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.96,1.08]
400 years 2.5 99.9% 1.00 0.10 [0.82,1.35]
400 years 2.5 99.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.14]
400 years 2.5 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.10]
400 years 2.5 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.06]
400 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.04]
400 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
400 years 3 99.9% 1.00 0.07 [0.86,1.22]
400 years 3 99.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
400 years 3 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
400 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.04]
400 years 3 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
400 years 3 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 4 99.9% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.13]
400 years 4 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
400 years 4 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
400 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
400 years 4 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 4 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 5 99.9% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.10]
400 years 5 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
400 years 5 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
400 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 5 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 6 99.9% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.08]
400 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
400 years 6 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
400 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 6 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 6 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]

Pareto VaR

VaR p
N alpha p bias se 99% conf
200 days 2 99.9% 0.79 1.86 [0.20,6.31]
200 days 2 99.5% 1.77 4.15 [0.44,14.10]
200 days 2 99% 1.25 0.65 [0.52,4.39]
200 days 2 97.5% 1.08 0.27 [0.64,2.15]
200 days 2 95% 1.04 0.17 [0.72,1.63]
200 days 2 90% 1.02 0.11 [0.79,1.37]
200 days 2.5 99.9% 0.78 0.78 [0.27,4.37]
200 days 2.5 99.5% 1.49 1.49 [0.52,8.32]
200 days 2.5 99% 1.18 0.46 [0.60,3.27]
200 days 2.5 97.5% 1.06 0.21 [0.70,1.84]
200 days 2.5 95% 1.03 0.13 [0.77,1.48]
200 days 2.5 90% 1.01 0.09 [0.83,1.29]
200 days 3 99.9% 0.79 0.54 [0.34,3.41]
200 days 3 99.5% 1.35 0.93 [0.58,5.84]
200 days 3 99% 1.14 0.35 [0.65,2.68]
200 days 3 97.5% 1.05 0.17 [0.74,1.66]
200 days 3 95% 1.02 0.11 [0.80,1.38]
200 days 3 90% 1.01 0.07 [0.85,1.24]
200 days 4 99.9% 0.82 0.35 [0.44,2.51]
200 days 4 99.5% 1.23 0.52 [0.66,3.76]
200 days 4 99% 1.09 0.24 [0.72,2.10]
200 days 4 97.5% 1.03 0.12 [0.80,1.47]
200 days 4 95% 1.02 0.08 [0.85,1.28]
200 days 4 90% 1.01 0.05 [0.89,1.17]
200 days 5 99.9% 0.84 0.26 [0.52,2.09]
200 days 5 99.5% 1.16 0.37 [0.72,2.88]
200 days 5 99% 1.07 0.18 [0.77,1.81]
200 days 5 97.5% 1.03 0.10 [0.83,1.36]
200 days 5 95% 1.01 0.06 [0.88,1.22]
200 days 5 90% 1.01 0.04 [0.91,1.14]
200 days 6 99.9% 0.86 0.22 [0.58,1.85]
200 days 6 99.5% 1.13 0.28 [0.76,2.42]
200 days 6 99% 1.06 0.15 [0.81,1.64]
200 days 6 97.5% 1.02 0.08 [0.86,1.29]
200 days 6 95% 1.01 0.05 [0.90,1.18]
200 days 6 90% 1.01 0.04 [0.92,1.11]
300 days 2 99.9% 0.97 2.13 [0.24,7.71]
300 days 2 99.5% 2.17 4.75 [0.53,17.24]
300 days 2 99% 1.15 0.42 [0.57,2.97]
300 days 2 97.5% 1.10 0.22 [0.70,1.91]
300 days 2 95% 1.03 0.13 [0.76,1.47]
300 days 2 90% 1.01 0.09 [0.82,1.29]
300 days 2.5 99.9% 0.92 0.92 [0.32,5.14]
300 days 2.5 99.5% 1.75 1.76 [0.61,9.78]
300 days 2.5 99% 1.11 0.31 [0.64,2.39]
300 days 2.5 97.5% 1.07 0.17 [0.75,1.68]
300 days 2.5 95% 1.02 0.11 [0.80,1.36]
300 days 2.5 90% 1.01 0.07 [0.85,1.22]
300 days 3 99.9% 0.91 0.61 [0.39,3.91]
300 days 3 99.5% 1.55 1.05 [0.66,6.69]
300 days 3 99% 1.09 0.25 [0.69,2.07]
300 days 3 97.5% 1.06 0.14 [0.79,1.54]
300 days 3 95% 1.02 0.09 [0.83,1.29]
300 days 3 90% 1.01 0.06 [0.88,1.18]
300 days 4 99.9% 0.91 0.38 [0.49,2.78]
300 days 4 99.5% 1.36 0.58 [0.73,4.16]
300 days 4 99% 1.06 0.18 [0.76,1.72]
300 days 4 97.5% 1.04 0.10 [0.84,1.38]
300 days 4 95% 1.01 0.07 [0.87,1.21]
300 days 4 90% 1.01 0.04 [0.91,1.13]
300 days 5 99.9% 0.92 0.29 [0.56,2.27]
300 days 5 99.5% 1.26 0.40 [0.78,3.13]
300 days 5 99% 1.04 0.14 [0.80,1.55]
300 days 5 97.5% 1.03 0.08 [0.87,1.30]
300 days 5 95% 1.01 0.05 [0.89,1.17]
300 days 5 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.92,1.11]
300 days 6 99.9% 0.92 0.23 [0.62,1.98]
300 days 6 99.5% 1.21 0.30 [0.81,2.59]
300 days 6 99% 1.04 0.11 [0.83,1.44]
300 days 6 97.5% 1.03 0.07 [0.89,1.24]
300 days 6 95% 1.01 0.04 [0.91,1.14]
300 days 6 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.09]
2 years 2 99.9% 1.25 2.71 [0.31,9.99]
2 years 2 99.5% 1.40 0.73 [0.58,4.90]
2 years 2 99% 1.08 0.27 [0.63,2.15]
2 years 2 97.5% 1.05 0.16 [0.75,1.59]
2 years 2 95% 1.02 0.10 [0.80,1.33]
2 years 2 90% 1.01 0.07 [0.85,1.21]
2 years 2.5 99.9% 1.13 1.12 [0.39,6.30]
2 years 2.5 99.5% 1.29 0.50 [0.65,3.57]
2 years 2.5 99% 1.06 0.21 [0.69,1.85]
2 years 2.5 97.5% 1.04 0.12 [0.79,1.45]
2 years 2.5 95% 1.01 0.08 [0.84,1.26]
2 years 2.5 90% 1.01 0.05 [0.88,1.16]
2 years 3 99.9% 1.08 0.73 [0.46,4.64]
2 years 3 99.5% 1.23 0.38 [0.70,2.89]
2 years 3 99% 1.05 0.17 [0.74,1.67]
2 years 3 97.5% 1.03 0.10 [0.82,1.36]
2 years 3 95% 1.01 0.07 [0.86,1.21]
2 years 3 90% 1.00 0.05 [0.90,1.13]
2 years 4 99.9% 1.03 0.44 [0.55,3.16]
2 years 4 99.5% 1.16 0.26 [0.76,2.22]
2 years 4 99% 1.03 0.13 [0.80,1.47]
2 years 4 97.5% 1.02 0.08 [0.86,1.26]
2 years 4 95% 1.01 0.05 [0.89,1.15]
2 years 4 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.10]
2 years 5 99.9% 1.01 0.32 [0.62,2.51]
2 years 5 99.5% 1.12 0.19 [0.81,1.89]
2 years 5 99% 1.03 0.10 [0.83,1.36]
2 years 5 97.5% 1.02 0.06 [0.89,1.20]
2 years 5 95% 1.01 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
2 years 5 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.08]
2 years 6 99.9% 1.01 0.25 [0.68,2.16]
2 years 6 99.5% 1.10 0.16 [0.83,1.70]
2 years 6 99% 1.02 0.08 [0.86,1.29]
2 years 6 97.5% 1.02 0.05 [0.91,1.17]
2 years 6 95% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.10]
2 years 6 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.07]
4 years 2 99.9% 1.77 3.57 [0.43,14.17]
4 years 2 99.5% 1.08 0.27 [0.63,2.15]
4 years 2 99% 1.04 0.17 [0.71,1.64]
4 years 2 97.5% 1.02 0.10 [0.80,1.33]
4 years 2 95% 1.01 0.07 [0.85,1.21]
4 years 2 90% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.14]
4 years 2.5 99.9% 1.49 1.49 [0.51,8.31]
4 years 2.5 99.5% 1.06 0.21 [0.69,1.85]
4 years 2.5 99% 1.03 0.14 [0.76,1.48]
4 years 2.5 97.5% 1.01 0.08 [0.83,1.26]
4 years 2.5 95% 1.01 0.06 [0.88,1.17]
4 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.11]
4 years 3 99.9% 1.35 0.92 [0.57,5.84]
4 years 3 99.5% 1.05 0.17 [0.74,1.67]
4 years 3 99% 1.02 0.11 [0.80,1.39]
4 years 3 97.5% 1.01 0.07 [0.86,1.21]
4 years 3 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.90,1.14]
4 years 3 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
4 years 4 99.9% 1.23 0.52 [0.66,3.76]
4 years 4 99.5% 1.03 0.13 [0.79,1.47]
4 years 4 99% 1.02 0.08 [0.84,1.28]
4 years 4 97.5% 1.01 0.05 [0.89,1.15]
4 years 4 95% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.10]
4 years 4 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.07]
4 years 5 99.9% 1.16 0.37 [0.72,2.88]
4 years 5 99.5% 1.03 0.10 [0.83,1.36]
4 years 5 99% 1.01 0.07 [0.87,1.22]
4 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
4 years 5 95% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.08]
4 years 5 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
4 years 6 99.9% 1.13 0.28 [0.76,2.42]
4 years 6 99.5% 1.02 0.08 [0.86,1.29]
4 years 6 99% 1.01 0.05 [0.89,1.18]
4 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.10]
4 years 6 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.07]
4 years 6 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
10 years 2 99.9% 1.40 0.73 [0.58,4.91]
10 years 2 99.5% 1.05 0.16 [0.74,1.59]
10 years 2 99% 1.02 0.10 [0.79,1.34]
10 years 2 97.5% 1.01 0.06 [0.86,1.20]
10 years 2 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.13]
10 years 2 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.08]
10 years 2.5 99.9% 1.29 0.50 [0.65,3.57]
10 years 2.5 99.5% 1.04 0.13 [0.79,1.45]
10 years 2.5 99% 1.01 0.08 [0.83,1.26]
10 years 2.5 97.5% 1.01 0.05 [0.89,1.15]
10 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.92,1.10]
10 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.07]
10 years 3 99.9% 1.23 0.38 [0.70,2.89]
10 years 3 99.5% 1.03 0.10 [0.82,1.36]
10 years 3 99% 1.01 0.07 [0.86,1.21]
10 years 3 97.5% 1.01 0.04 [0.91,1.13]
10 years 3 95% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.08]
10 years 3 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
10 years 4 99.9% 1.16 0.26 [0.76,2.22]
10 years 4 99.5% 1.02 0.08 [0.86,1.26]
10 years 4 99% 1.01 0.05 [0.89,1.16]
10 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
10 years 4 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
10 years 4 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
10 years 5 99.9% 1.12 0.19 [0.80,1.89]
10 years 5 99.5% 1.02 0.06 [0.89,1.20]
10 years 5 99% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
10 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.07]
10 years 5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
10 years 5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
10 years 6 99.9% 1.10 0.16 [0.83,1.70]
10 years 6 99.5% 1.02 0.05 [0.91,1.17]
10 years 6 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.10]
10 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
10 years 6 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.04]
10 years 6 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.03]
50 years 2 99.9% 1.05 0.16 [0.74,1.59]
50 years 2 99.5% 1.01 0.06 [0.86,1.20]
50 years 2 99% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.13]
50 years 2 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.08]
50 years 2 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.05]
50 years 2 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.04]
50 years 2.5 99.9% 1.04 0.13 [0.79,1.45]
50 years 2.5 99.5% 1.01 0.05 [0.89,1.15]
50 years 2.5 99% 1.00 0.04 [0.92,1.10]
50 years 2.5 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
50 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
50 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
50 years 3 99.9% 1.03 0.10 [0.82,1.36]
50 years 3 99.5% 1.01 0.04 [0.91,1.13]
50 years 3 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.08]
50 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
50 years 3 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
50 years 3 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
50 years 4 99.9% 1.02 0.08 [0.86,1.26]
50 years 4 99.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
50 years 4 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
50 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.04]
50 years 4 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.03]
50 years 4 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
50 years 5 99.9% 1.02 0.06 [0.89,1.20]
50 years 5 99.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.07]
50 years 5 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
50 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
50 years 5 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
50 years 5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.99,1.01]
50 years 6 99.9% 1.02 0.05 [0.90,1.17]
50 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
50 years 6 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
50 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.03]
50 years 6 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
50 years 6 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
200 years 2 99.9% 1.01 0.07 [0.84,1.22]
200 years 2 99.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.09]
200 years 2 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
200 years 2 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.04]
200 years 2 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.03]
200 years 2 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 2.5 99.9% 1.01 0.06 [0.87,1.17]
200 years 2.5 99.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.07]
200 years 2.5 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
200 years 2.5 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.99,1.01]
200 years 3 99.9% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.14]
200 years 3 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
200 years 3 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
200 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 3 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 3 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
200 years 4 99.9% 1.00 0.04 [0.92,1.10]
200 years 4 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
200 years 4 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 4 95% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
200 years 4 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
200 years 5 99.9% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.08]
200 years 5 99.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 5 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.99,1.01]
200 years 5 95% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
200 years 5 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
200 years 6 99.9% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.07]
200 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 6 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
200 years 6 95% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
200 years 6 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 2 99.9% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.15]
400 years 2 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
400 years 2 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
400 years 2 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.03]
400 years 2 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 2 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 2.5 99.9% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
400 years 2.5 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
400 years 2.5 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
400 years 2.5 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 3 99.9% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.10]
400 years 3 99.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
400 years 3 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
400 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 3 95% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 3 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 4 99.9% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.07]
400 years 4 99.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
400 years 4 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 4 95% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 4 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 5 99.9% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
400 years 5 99.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 5 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 5 95% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 5 90% 1.00 0.00 [1.00,1.00]
400 years 6 99.9% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
400 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 6 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 6 95% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 6 90% 1.00 0.00 [1.00,1.00]

Pareto ES

ES p
N alpha p bias se 99% conf
200 days 2 99.9% 0.40 0.93 [0.10,3.15]
200 days 2 99.5% 0.89 2.08 [0.22,7.05]
200 days 2 99% 0.94 1.51 [0.30,5.62]
200 days 2 97.5% 0.98 0.98 [0.41,4.07]
200 days 2 95% 0.99 0.71 [0.51,3.21]
200 days 2 90% 0.99 0.51 [0.60,2.59]
200 days 2.5 99.9% 0.47 0.47 [0.16,2.62]
200 days 2.5 99.5% 0.89 0.89 [0.31,4.99]
200 days 2.5 99% 0.94 0.65 [0.39,3.92]
200 days 2.5 97.5% 0.98 0.42 [0.51,2.82]
200 days 2.5 95% 0.99 0.30 [0.60,2.25]
200 days 2.5 90% 0.99 0.21 [0.69,1.85]
200 days 3 99.9% 0.53 0.36 [0.22,2.28]
200 days 3 99.5% 0.90 0.62 [0.38,3.89]
200 days 3 99% 0.95 0.45 [0.47,3.06]
200 days 3 97.5% 0.98 0.29 [0.59,2.25]
200 days 3 95% 0.99 0.21 [0.67,1.84]
200 days 3 90% 1.00 0.15 [0.74,1.56]
200 days 4 99.9% 0.61 0.26 [0.33,1.88]
200 days 4 99.5% 0.92 0.39 [0.50,2.82]
200 days 4 99% 0.96 0.29 [0.58,2.26]
200 days 4 97.5% 0.98 0.19 [0.68,1.74]
200 days 4 95% 0.99 0.13 [0.75,1.49]
200 days 4 90% 1.00 0.09 [0.81,1.32]
200 days 5 99.9% 0.68 0.21 [0.42,1.67]
200 days 5 99.5% 0.93 0.29 [0.57,2.31]
200 days 5 99% 0.96 0.22 [0.65,1.90]
200 days 5 97.5% 0.98 0.14 [0.74,1.52]
200 days 5 95% 0.99 0.10 [0.80,1.35]
200 days 5 90% 1.00 0.07 [0.85,1.23]
200 days 6 99.9% 0.72 0.18 [0.48,1.54]
200 days 6 99.5% 0.94 0.24 [0.63,2.01]
200 days 6 99% 0.97 0.18 [0.70,1.69]
200 days 6 97.5% 0.99 0.11 [0.78,1.40]
200 days 6 95% 0.99 0.08 [0.83,1.27]
200 days 6 90% 1.00 0.06 [0.88,1.18]
300 days 2 99.9% 0.49 1.06 [0.12,3.85]
300 days 2 99.5% 1.09 2.38 [0.27,8.62]
300 days 2 99% 0.96 1.18 [0.34,4.87]
300 days 2 97.5% 1.02 0.82 [0.47,3.75]
300 days 2 95% 0.99 0.55 [0.56,2.83]
300 days 2 90% 1.00 0.40 [0.64,2.31]
300 days 2.5 99.9% 0.55 0.55 [0.19,3.08]
300 days 2.5 99.5% 1.05 1.05 [0.36,5.87]
300 days 2.5 99% 0.96 0.54 [0.44,3.38]
300 days 2.5 97.5% 1.01 0.37 [0.57,2.59]
300 days 2.5 95% 0.99 0.25 [0.65,2.00]
300 days 2.5 90% 1.00 0.17 [0.73,1.68]
300 days 3 99.9% 0.60 0.41 [0.26,2.61]
300 days 3 99.5% 1.03 0.70 [0.44,4.46]
300 days 3 99% 0.96 0.37 [0.52,2.66]
300 days 3 97.5% 1.01 0.25 [0.64,2.07]
300 days 3 95% 0.99 0.17 [0.71,1.66]
300 days 3 90% 1.00 0.12 [0.78,1.44]
300 days 4 99.9% 0.68 0.29 [0.37,2.09]
300 days 4 99.5% 1.02 0.43 [0.55,3.12]
300 days 4 99% 0.97 0.24 [0.62,2.00]
300 days 4 97.5% 1.00 0.16 [0.73,1.64]
300 days 4 95% 0.99 0.11 [0.78,1.39]
300 days 4 90% 1.00 0.08 [0.84,1.26]
300 days 5 99.9% 0.73 0.23 [0.45,1.81]
300 days 5 99.5% 1.01 0.32 [0.62,2.50]
300 days 5 99% 0.97 0.18 [0.69,1.71]
300 days 5 97.5% 1.00 0.12 [0.78,1.45]
300 days 5 95% 0.99 0.08 [0.83,1.27]
300 days 5 90% 1.00 0.06 [0.87,1.18]
300 days 6 99.9% 0.77 0.19 [0.52,1.65]
300 days 6 99.5% 1.01 0.25 [0.68,2.16]
300 days 6 99% 0.98 0.15 [0.73,1.55]
300 days 6 97.5% 1.00 0.10 [0.81,1.35]
300 days 6 95% 1.00 0.07 [0.86,1.21]
300 days 6 90% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.14]
2 years 2 99.9% 0.63 1.35 [0.15,5.00]
2 years 2 99.5% 1.05 1.57 [0.33,6.30]
2 years 2 99% 0.98 0.92 [0.41,4.08]
2 years 2 97.5% 1.01 0.62 [0.54,3.10]
2 years 2 95% 1.00 0.43 [0.62,2.43]
2 years 2 90% 1.00 0.31 [0.70,2.02]
2 years 2.5 99.9% 0.68 0.67 [0.23,3.78]
2 years 2.5 99.5% 1.03 0.71 [0.43,4.28]
2 years 2.5 99% 0.98 0.42 [0.51,2.82]
2 years 2.5 97.5% 1.01 0.28 [0.63,2.17]
2 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.19 [0.71,1.75]
2 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.14 [0.77,1.51]
2 years 3 99.9% 0.72 0.48 [0.30,3.10]
2 years 3 99.5% 1.02 0.48 [0.50,3.30]
2 years 3 99% 0.98 0.29 [0.58,2.25]
2 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.19 [0.70,1.78]
2 years 3 95% 1.00 0.13 [0.76,1.49]
2 years 3 90% 1.00 0.09 [0.82,1.33]
2 years 4 99.9% 0.77 0.33 [0.42,2.37]
2 years 4 99.5% 1.01 0.31 [0.61,2.39]
2 years 4 99% 0.98 0.19 [0.68,1.75]
2 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.12 [0.77,1.46]
2 years 4 95% 1.00 0.09 [0.82,1.29]
2 years 4 90% 1.00 0.06 [0.87,1.19]
2 years 5 99.9% 0.81 0.25 [0.50,2.01]
2 years 5 99.5% 1.01 0.23 [0.68,1.98]
2 years 5 99% 0.98 0.14 [0.74,1.53]
2 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.09 [0.82,1.32]
2 years 5 95% 1.00 0.06 [0.86,1.20]
2 years 5 90% 1.00 0.05 [0.90,1.14]
2 years 6 99.9% 0.84 0.21 [0.56,1.80]
2 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.18 [0.72,1.76]
2 years 6 99% 0.99 0.11 [0.78,1.41]
2 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.08 [0.85,1.25]
2 years 6 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.88,1.16]
2 years 6 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.92,1.11]
4 years 2 99.9% 0.89 1.78 [0.22,7.09]
4 years 2 99.5% 0.98 0.86 [0.41,4.09]
4 years 2 99% 0.99 0.63 [0.50,3.23]
4 years 2 97.5% 1.00 0.41 [0.62,2.44]
4 years 2 95% 1.00 0.29 [0.70,2.03]
4 years 2 90% 1.00 0.21 [0.76,1.73]
4 years 2.5 99.9% 0.89 0.90 [0.31,4.99]
4 years 2.5 99.5% 0.98 0.42 [0.51,2.82]
4 years 2.5 99% 0.99 0.30 [0.60,2.25]
4 years 2.5 97.5% 1.00 0.19 [0.71,1.76]
4 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.14 [0.77,1.51]
4 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.10 [0.83,1.35]
4 years 3 99.9% 0.90 0.61 [0.38,3.90]
4 years 3 99.5% 0.98 0.29 [0.58,2.25]
4 years 3 99% 0.99 0.21 [0.66,1.84]
4 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.76,1.49]
4 years 3 95% 1.00 0.09 [0.82,1.33]
4 years 3 90% 1.00 0.07 [0.86,1.22]
4 years 4 99.9% 0.92 0.39 [0.49,2.82]
4 years 4 99.5% 0.98 0.19 [0.68,1.74]
4 years 4 99% 0.99 0.14 [0.75,1.49]
4 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.09 [0.82,1.29]
4 years 4 95% 1.00 0.06 [0.87,1.19]
4 years 4 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.13]
4 years 5 99.9% 0.93 0.29 [0.57,2.31]
4 years 5 99.5% 0.98 0.14 [0.74,1.53]
4 years 5 99% 0.99 0.10 [0.80,1.35]
4 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.86,1.20]
4 years 5 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.90,1.14]
4 years 5 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
4 years 6 99.9% 0.94 0.24 [0.63,2.01]
4 years 6 99.5% 0.99 0.11 [0.78,1.41]
4 years 6 99% 0.99 0.08 [0.83,1.27]
4 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.05 [0.88,1.16]
4 years 6 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.11]
4 years 6 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.07]
10 years 2 99.9% 1.05 1.50 [0.33,6.31]
10 years 2 99.5% 1.01 0.60 [0.54,3.10]
10 years 2 99% 1.00 0.42 [0.62,2.43]
10 years 2 97.5% 1.00 0.27 [0.72,1.93]
10 years 2 95% 1.00 0.19 [0.78,1.66]
10 years 2 90% 1.00 0.14 [0.83,1.47]
10 years 2.5 99.9% 1.03 0.71 [0.43,4.27]
10 years 2.5 99.5% 1.01 0.28 [0.63,2.16]
10 years 2.5 99% 1.00 0.19 [0.70,1.75]
10 years 2.5 97.5% 1.00 0.12 [0.79,1.46]
10 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.09 [0.84,1.31]
10 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.06 [0.88,1.21]
10 years 3 99.9% 1.02 0.49 [0.50,3.30]
10 years 3 99.5% 1.00 0.19 [0.69,1.78]
10 years 3 99% 1.00 0.13 [0.76,1.49]
10 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.08 [0.83,1.29]
10 years 3 95% 1.00 0.06 [0.88,1.19]
10 years 3 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.13]
10 years 4 99.9% 1.01 0.31 [0.61,2.39]
10 years 4 99.5% 1.00 0.12 [0.77,1.46]
10 years 4 99% 1.00 0.09 [0.82,1.29]
10 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.05 [0.88,1.17]
10 years 4 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.11]
10 years 4 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.08]
10 years 5 99.9% 1.01 0.23 [0.68,1.98]
10 years 5 99.5% 1.00 0.09 [0.82,1.32]
10 years 5 99% 1.00 0.06 [0.86,1.20]
10 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
10 years 5 95% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.08]
10 years 5 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
10 years 6 99.9% 1.00 0.18 [0.72,1.76]
10 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.08 [0.85,1.25]
10 years 6 99% 1.00 0.05 [0.88,1.16]
10 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.10]
10 years 6 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.06]
10 years 6 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.04]
50 years 2 99.9% 1.01 0.56 [0.54,3.10]
50 years 2 99.5% 1.00 0.26 [0.72,1.93]
50 years 2 99% 1.00 0.18 [0.78,1.66]
50 years 2 97.5% 1.00 0.12 [0.84,1.42]
50 years 2 95% 1.00 0.09 [0.88,1.30]
50 years 2 90% 1.00 0.06 [0.91,1.21]
50 years 2.5 99.9% 1.01 0.28 [0.63,2.17]
50 years 2.5 99.5% 1.00 0.12 [0.79,1.46]
50 years 2.5 99% 1.00 0.09 [0.84,1.31]
50 years 2.5 97.5% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.19]
50 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.92,1.13]
50 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.09]
50 years 3 99.9% 1.00 0.19 [0.69,1.78]
50 years 3 99.5% 1.00 0.08 [0.83,1.29]
50 years 3 99% 1.00 0.06 [0.87,1.19]
50 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.92,1.12]
50 years 3 95% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.08]
50 years 3 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
50 years 4 99.9% 1.00 0.13 [0.77,1.46]
50 years 4 99.5% 1.00 0.05 [0.88,1.17]
50 years 4 99% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.11]
50 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.07]
50 years 4 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
50 years 4 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
50 years 5 99.9% 1.00 0.09 [0.82,1.32]
50 years 5 99.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
50 years 5 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.08]
50 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
50 years 5 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
50 years 5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
50 years 6 99.9% 1.00 0.08 [0.85,1.25]
50 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.10]
50 years 6 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.07]
50 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
50 years 6 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
50 years 6 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 2 99.9% 1.00 0.27 [0.69,2.03]
200 years 2 99.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.83,1.47]
200 years 2 99% 1.00 0.09 [0.87,1.33]
200 years 2 97.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.91,1.21]
200 years 2 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.93,1.15]
200 years 2 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.95,1.11]
200 years 2.5 99.9% 1.00 0.13 [0.77,1.51]
200 years 2.5 99.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.88,1.21]
200 years 2.5 99% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.14]
200 years 2.5 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.09]
200 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.06]
200 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.04]
200 years 3 99.9% 1.00 0.09 [0.82,1.33]
200 years 3 99.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.13]
200 years 3 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
200 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
200 years 3 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.04]
200 years 3 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.03]
200 years 4 99.9% 1.00 0.06 [0.87,1.19]
200 years 4 99.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.08]
200 years 4 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.05]
200 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 4 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 4 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 5 99.9% 1.00 0.05 [0.90,1.14]
200 years 5 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
200 years 5 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
200 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 5 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 5 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
200 years 6 99.9% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.11]
200 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
200 years 6 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
200 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
200 years 6 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.99,1.01]
200 years 6 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 2 99.9% 1.00 0.19 [0.76,1.73]
400 years 2 99.5% 1.00 0.09 [0.87,1.33]
400 years 2 99% 1.00 0.07 [0.90,1.24]
400 years 2 97.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.93,1.15]
400 years 2 95% 1.00 0.03 [0.95,1.11]
400 years 2 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.08]
400 years 2.5 99.9% 1.00 0.10 [0.82,1.35]
400 years 2.5 99.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.14]
400 years 2.5 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.10]
400 years 2.5 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.06]
400 years 2.5 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.04]
400 years 2.5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.03]
400 years 3 99.9% 1.00 0.07 [0.86,1.22]
400 years 3 99.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
400 years 3 99% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
400 years 3 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.04]
400 years 3 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.03]
400 years 3 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 4 99.9% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.13]
400 years 4 99.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.05]
400 years 4 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.04]
400 years 4 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 4 95% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 4 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 5 99.9% 1.00 0.03 [0.92,1.09]
400 years 5 99.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
400 years 5 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
400 years 5 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 5 95% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 5 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 6 99.9% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.07]
400 years 6 99.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.97,1.03]
400 years 6 99% 1.00 0.01 [0.98,1.02]
400 years 6 97.5% 1.00 0.01 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 6 95% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]
400 years 6 90% 1.00 0.00 [0.99,1.01]

t-GARCH VaR

VaR g
N alpha p bias se 99% conf
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.57 0.34 [0.22,2.26]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.97 0.58 [0.37,3.82]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.96 0.51 [0.42,3.45]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.98 0.44 [0.48,3.13]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.99 0.40 [0.53,2.88]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.34 [0.56,2.59]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.57 0.34 [0.22,2.26]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.97 0.58 [0.37,3.82]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.96 0.51 [0.42,3.45]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.98 0.44 [0.48,3.13]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.99 0.40 [0.53,2.88]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.34 [0.56,2.59]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.57 0.34 [0.22,2.26]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.97 0.58 [0.37,3.82]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.96 0.51 [0.42,3.45]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.98 0.44 [0.48,3.13]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.99 0.40 [0.53,2.88]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.34 [0.56,2.59]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.57 0.34 [0.22,2.26]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.97 0.58 [0.37,3.82]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.96 0.51 [0.42,3.45]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.98 0.44 [0.48,3.13]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.99 0.40 [0.53,2.88]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.34 [0.56,2.59]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.57 0.34 [0.22,2.26]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.97 0.58 [0.37,3.82]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.96 0.51 [0.42,3.45]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.98 0.44 [0.48,3.13]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.99 0.40 [0.53,2.88]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.34 [0.56,2.59]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.57 0.34 [0.22,2.26]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.97 0.58 [0.37,3.82]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.96 0.51 [0.42,3.45]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.98 0.44 [0.48,3.13]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.99 0.40 [0.53,2.88]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.34 [0.56,2.59]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.66 0.40 [0.26,2.63]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.12 0.68 [0.44,4.44]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.98 0.49 [0.47,3.35]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.02 0.43 [0.54,3.13]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.36 [0.57,2.71]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.30 [0.61,2.35]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.66 0.40 [0.26,2.63]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.12 0.68 [0.44,4.44]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.98 0.49 [0.47,3.35]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.02 0.43 [0.54,3.13]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.36 [0.57,2.71]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.30 [0.61,2.35]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.66 0.40 [0.26,2.63]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.12 0.68 [0.44,4.44]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.98 0.49 [0.47,3.35]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.02 0.43 [0.54,3.13]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.36 [0.57,2.71]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.30 [0.61,2.35]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.66 0.40 [0.26,2.63]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.12 0.68 [0.44,4.44]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.98 0.49 [0.47,3.35]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.02 0.43 [0.54,3.13]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.36 [0.57,2.71]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.30 [0.61,2.35]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.66 0.40 [0.26,2.63]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.12 0.68 [0.44,4.44]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.98 0.49 [0.47,3.35]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.02 0.43 [0.54,3.13]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.36 [0.57,2.71]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.30 [0.61,2.35]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.66 0.40 [0.26,2.63]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.12 0.68 [0.44,4.44]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.98 0.49 [0.47,3.35]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.02 0.43 [0.54,3.13]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.36 [0.57,2.71]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.30 [0.61,2.35]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.80 0.48 [0.32,3.14]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.06 0.56 [0.49,3.81]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.99 0.44 [0.52,3.17]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.02 0.37 [0.60,2.82]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.01 0.30 [0.63,2.37]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.01 0.23 [0.67,1.99]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.80 0.48 [0.32,3.14]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.06 0.56 [0.49,3.81]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.99 0.44 [0.52,3.17]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.02 0.37 [0.60,2.82]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.01 0.30 [0.63,2.37]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.01 0.23 [0.67,1.99]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.80 0.48 [0.32,3.14]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.06 0.56 [0.49,3.81]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.99 0.44 [0.52,3.17]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.02 0.37 [0.60,2.82]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.01 0.30 [0.63,2.37]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.01 0.23 [0.67,1.99]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.80 0.48 [0.32,3.14]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.06 0.56 [0.49,3.81]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.99 0.44 [0.52,3.17]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.02 0.37 [0.60,2.82]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.01 0.30 [0.63,2.37]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.01 0.23 [0.67,1.99]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.80 0.48 [0.32,3.14]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.06 0.56 [0.49,3.81]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.99 0.44 [0.52,3.17]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.02 0.37 [0.60,2.82]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.01 0.30 [0.63,2.37]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.01 0.23 [0.67,1.99]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.80 0.48 [0.32,3.14]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.06 0.56 [0.49,3.81]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.99 0.44 [0.52,3.17]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.02 0.37 [0.60,2.82]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.01 0.30 [0.63,2.37]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.01 0.23 [0.67,1.99]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.01 0.60 [0.42,3.94]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.44 [0.55,3.15]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.01 0.37 [0.60,2.82]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.01 0.28 [0.66,2.28]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.01 0.21 [0.70,1.88]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.15 [0.74,1.60]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.01 0.60 [0.42,3.94]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.44 [0.55,3.15]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.01 0.37 [0.60,2.82]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.01 0.28 [0.66,2.28]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.01 0.21 [0.70,1.88]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.15 [0.74,1.60]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.01 0.60 [0.42,3.94]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.44 [0.55,3.15]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.01 0.37 [0.60,2.82]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.01 0.28 [0.66,2.28]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.01 0.21 [0.70,1.88]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.15 [0.74,1.60]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.01 0.60 [0.42,3.94]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.44 [0.55,3.15]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.01 0.37 [0.60,2.82]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.01 0.28 [0.66,2.28]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.01 0.21 [0.70,1.88]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.15 [0.74,1.60]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.01 0.60 [0.42,3.94]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.44 [0.55,3.15]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.01 0.37 [0.60,2.82]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.01 0.28 [0.66,2.28]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.01 0.21 [0.70,1.88]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.15 [0.74,1.60]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.01 0.60 [0.42,3.94]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.44 [0.55,3.15]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.01 0.37 [0.60,2.82]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.01 0.28 [0.66,2.28]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.01 0.21 [0.70,1.88]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.15 [0.74,1.60]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.08 0.55 [0.54,3.78]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.03 0.34 [0.65,2.68]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.01 0.26 [0.70,2.17]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.01 0.16 [0.75,1.67]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.12 [0.79,1.44]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.09 [0.81,1.32]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.08 0.55 [0.54,3.78]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.03 0.34 [0.65,2.68]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.01 0.26 [0.70,2.17]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.01 0.16 [0.75,1.67]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.12 [0.79,1.44]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.09 [0.81,1.32]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.08 0.55 [0.54,3.78]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.03 0.34 [0.65,2.68]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.01 0.26 [0.70,2.17]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.01 0.16 [0.75,1.67]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.12 [0.79,1.44]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.09 [0.81,1.32]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.08 0.55 [0.54,3.78]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.03 0.34 [0.65,2.68]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.01 0.26 [0.70,2.17]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.01 0.16 [0.75,1.67]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.12 [0.79,1.44]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.09 [0.81,1.32]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.08 0.55 [0.54,3.78]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.03 0.34 [0.65,2.68]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.01 0.26 [0.70,2.17]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.01 0.16 [0.75,1.67]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.12 [0.79,1.44]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.09 [0.81,1.32]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.08 0.55 [0.54,3.78]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.03 0.34 [0.65,2.68]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.01 0.26 [0.70,2.17]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.01 0.16 [0.75,1.67]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.12 [0.79,1.44]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.09 [0.81,1.32]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.03 0.32 [0.69,2.59]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.01 0.14 [0.79,1.57]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.09 [0.83,1.35]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.87,1.21]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.15]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.03 0.32 [0.69,2.59]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.01 0.14 [0.79,1.57]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.09 [0.83,1.35]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.87,1.21]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.15]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.03 0.32 [0.69,2.59]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.01 0.14 [0.79,1.57]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.09 [0.83,1.35]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.87,1.21]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.15]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.03 0.32 [0.69,2.59]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.01 0.14 [0.79,1.57]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.09 [0.83,1.35]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.87,1.21]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.15]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.03 0.32 [0.69,2.59]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.01 0.14 [0.79,1.57]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.09 [0.83,1.35]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.87,1.21]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.15]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.03 0.32 [0.69,2.59]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.01 0.14 [0.79,1.57]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.09 [0.83,1.35]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.87,1.21]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.89,1.15]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.12]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.01 0.15 [0.80,1.62]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.88,1.20]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.14]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.07]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.01 0.15 [0.80,1.62]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.88,1.20]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.14]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.07]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.01 0.15 [0.80,1.62]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.88,1.20]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.14]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.07]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.01 0.15 [0.80,1.62]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.88,1.20]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.14]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.07]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.01 0.15 [0.80,1.62]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.88,1.20]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.14]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.07]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.01 0.15 [0.80,1.62]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.06 [0.88,1.20]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.04 [0.90,1.14]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.94,1.07]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.00 0.09 [0.84,1.35]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.13]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.00 0.09 [0.84,1.35]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.13]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.00 0.09 [0.84,1.35]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.13]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.00 0.09 [0.84,1.35]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.13]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.00 0.09 [0.84,1.35]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.13]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 1.00 0.09 [0.84,1.35]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.04 [0.91,1.13]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.03 [0.93,1.09]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.02 [0.95,1.06]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.02 [0.96,1.05]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.01 [0.96,1.04]

t-GARCH ES

ES g
N alpha p bias se 99% conf
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.40 0.24 [0.15,1.57]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.66 0.39 [0.25,2.59]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.73 0.41 [0.31,2.72]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.82 0.41 [0.38,2.81]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.87 0.40 [0.43,2.80]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.90 0.38 [0.48,2.72]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.40 0.24 [0.15,1.57]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.66 0.39 [0.25,2.59]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.73 0.41 [0.31,2.72]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.82 0.41 [0.38,2.81]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.87 0.40 [0.43,2.80]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.90 0.38 [0.48,2.72]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.40 0.24 [0.15,1.57]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.66 0.39 [0.25,2.59]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.73 0.41 [0.31,2.72]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.82 0.41 [0.38,2.81]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.87 0.40 [0.43,2.80]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.90 0.38 [0.48,2.72]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.40 0.24 [0.15,1.57]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.66 0.39 [0.25,2.59]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.73 0.41 [0.31,2.72]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.82 0.41 [0.38,2.81]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.87 0.40 [0.43,2.80]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.90 0.38 [0.48,2.72]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.40 0.24 [0.15,1.57]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.66 0.39 [0.25,2.59]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.73 0.41 [0.31,2.72]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.82 0.41 [0.38,2.81]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.87 0.40 [0.43,2.80]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.90 0.38 [0.48,2.72]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.40 0.24 [0.15,1.57]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.66 0.39 [0.25,2.59]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.73 0.41 [0.31,2.72]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.82 0.41 [0.38,2.81]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.87 0.40 [0.43,2.80]
200 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.90 0.38 [0.48,2.72]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.46 0.28 [0.18,1.82]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.76 0.46 [0.30,3.02]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.79 0.42 [0.35,2.84]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.88 0.42 [0.43,2.94]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.90 0.39 [0.48,2.81]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.93 0.36 [0.52,2.67]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.46 0.28 [0.18,1.82]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.76 0.46 [0.30,3.02]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.79 0.42 [0.35,2.84]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.88 0.42 [0.43,2.94]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.90 0.39 [0.48,2.81]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.93 0.36 [0.52,2.67]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.46 0.28 [0.18,1.82]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.76 0.46 [0.30,3.02]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.79 0.42 [0.35,2.84]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.88 0.42 [0.43,2.94]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.90 0.39 [0.48,2.81]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.93 0.36 [0.52,2.67]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.46 0.28 [0.18,1.82]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.76 0.46 [0.30,3.02]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.79 0.42 [0.35,2.84]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.88 0.42 [0.43,2.94]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.90 0.39 [0.48,2.81]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.93 0.36 [0.52,2.67]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.46 0.28 [0.18,1.82]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.76 0.46 [0.30,3.02]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.79 0.42 [0.35,2.84]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.88 0.42 [0.43,2.94]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.90 0.39 [0.48,2.81]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.93 0.36 [0.52,2.67]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.46 0.28 [0.18,1.82]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.76 0.46 [0.30,3.02]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.79 0.42 [0.35,2.84]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.88 0.42 [0.43,2.94]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.90 0.39 [0.48,2.81]
300 days 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.93 0.36 [0.52,2.67]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.55 0.33 [0.22,2.18]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.82 0.45 [0.36,3.03]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.84 0.42 [0.41,2.90]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.92 0.40 [0.49,2.89]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.94 0.36 [0.54,2.70]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.96 0.32 [0.58,2.48]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.55 0.33 [0.22,2.18]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.82 0.45 [0.36,3.03]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.84 0.42 [0.41,2.90]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.92 0.40 [0.49,2.89]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.94 0.36 [0.54,2.70]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.96 0.32 [0.58,2.48]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.55 0.33 [0.22,2.18]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.82 0.45 [0.36,3.03]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.84 0.42 [0.41,2.90]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.92 0.40 [0.49,2.89]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.94 0.36 [0.54,2.70]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.96 0.32 [0.58,2.48]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.55 0.33 [0.22,2.18]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.82 0.45 [0.36,3.03]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.84 0.42 [0.41,2.90]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.92 0.40 [0.49,2.89]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.94 0.36 [0.54,2.70]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.96 0.32 [0.58,2.48]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.55 0.33 [0.22,2.18]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.82 0.45 [0.36,3.03]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.84 0.42 [0.41,2.90]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.92 0.40 [0.49,2.89]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.94 0.36 [0.54,2.70]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.96 0.32 [0.58,2.48]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.55 0.33 [0.22,2.18]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.82 0.45 [0.36,3.03]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.84 0.42 [0.41,2.90]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.92 0.40 [0.49,2.89]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.94 0.36 [0.54,2.70]
2 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.96 0.32 [0.58,2.48]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.70 0.41 [0.29,2.73]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.86 0.42 [0.43,2.92]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.91 0.40 [0.49,2.87]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.95 0.35 [0.56,2.66]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.97 0.31 [0.61,2.41]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.98 0.25 [0.66,2.15]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.70 0.41 [0.29,2.73]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.86 0.42 [0.43,2.92]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.91 0.40 [0.49,2.87]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.95 0.35 [0.56,2.66]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.97 0.31 [0.61,2.41]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.98 0.25 [0.66,2.15]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.70 0.41 [0.29,2.73]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.86 0.42 [0.43,2.92]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.91 0.40 [0.49,2.87]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.95 0.35 [0.56,2.66]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.97 0.31 [0.61,2.41]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.98 0.25 [0.66,2.15]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.70 0.41 [0.29,2.73]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.86 0.42 [0.43,2.92]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.91 0.40 [0.49,2.87]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.95 0.35 [0.56,2.66]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.97 0.31 [0.61,2.41]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.98 0.25 [0.66,2.15]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.70 0.41 [0.29,2.73]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.86 0.42 [0.43,2.92]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.91 0.40 [0.49,2.87]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.95 0.35 [0.56,2.66]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.97 0.31 [0.61,2.41]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.98 0.25 [0.66,2.15]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.70 0.41 [0.29,2.73]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.86 0.42 [0.43,2.92]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.91 0.40 [0.49,2.87]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.95 0.35 [0.56,2.66]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.97 0.31 [0.61,2.41]
4 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.98 0.25 [0.66,2.15]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.85 0.45 [0.40,3.08]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.94 0.39 [0.54,2.86]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.96 0.34 [0.59,2.61]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.98 0.27 [0.66,2.25]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.99 0.22 [0.70,1.96]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.99 0.17 [0.74,1.74]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.85 0.45 [0.40,3.08]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.94 0.39 [0.54,2.86]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.96 0.34 [0.59,2.61]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.98 0.27 [0.66,2.25]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.99 0.22 [0.70,1.96]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.99 0.17 [0.74,1.74]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.85 0.45 [0.40,3.08]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.94 0.39 [0.54,2.86]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.96 0.34 [0.59,2.61]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.98 0.27 [0.66,2.25]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.99 0.22 [0.70,1.96]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.99 0.17 [0.74,1.74]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.85 0.45 [0.40,3.08]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.94 0.39 [0.54,2.86]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.96 0.34 [0.59,2.61]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.98 0.27 [0.66,2.25]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.99 0.22 [0.70,1.96]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.99 0.17 [0.74,1.74]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.85 0.45 [0.40,3.08]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.94 0.39 [0.54,2.86]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.96 0.34 [0.59,2.61]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.98 0.27 [0.66,2.25]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.99 0.22 [0.70,1.96]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.99 0.17 [0.74,1.74]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.85 0.45 [0.40,3.08]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.94 0.39 [0.54,2.86]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.96 0.34 [0.59,2.61]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 0.98 0.27 [0.66,2.25]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 0.99 0.22 [0.70,1.96]
10 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 0.99 0.17 [0.74,1.74]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.95 0.38 [0.57,2.82]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.99 0.25 [0.70,2.16]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.99 0.19 [0.74,1.86]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.80,1.56]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.10 [0.83,1.41]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.08 [0.85,1.30]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.95 0.38 [0.57,2.82]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.99 0.25 [0.70,2.16]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.99 0.19 [0.74,1.86]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.80,1.56]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.10 [0.83,1.41]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.08 [0.85,1.30]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.95 0.38 [0.57,2.82]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.99 0.25 [0.70,2.16]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.99 0.19 [0.74,1.86]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.80,1.56]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.10 [0.83,1.41]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.08 [0.85,1.30]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.95 0.38 [0.57,2.82]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.99 0.25 [0.70,2.16]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.99 0.19 [0.74,1.86]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.80,1.56]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.10 [0.83,1.41]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.08 [0.85,1.30]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.95 0.38 [0.57,2.82]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.99 0.25 [0.70,2.16]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.99 0.19 [0.74,1.86]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.80,1.56]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.10 [0.83,1.41]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.08 [0.85,1.30]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.95 0.38 [0.57,2.82]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 0.99 0.25 [0.70,2.16]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 0.99 0.19 [0.74,1.86]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.80,1.56]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.10 [0.83,1.41]
50 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.08 [0.85,1.30]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.98 0.26 [0.70,2.22]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.80,1.58]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.10 [0.84,1.41]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.07 [0.88,1.26]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.90,1.18]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.92,1.14]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.98 0.26 [0.70,2.22]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.80,1.58]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.10 [0.84,1.41]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.07 [0.88,1.26]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.90,1.18]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.92,1.14]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.98 0.26 [0.70,2.22]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.80,1.58]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.10 [0.84,1.41]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.07 [0.88,1.26]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.90,1.18]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.92,1.14]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.98 0.26 [0.70,2.22]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.80,1.58]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.10 [0.84,1.41]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.07 [0.88,1.26]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.90,1.18]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.92,1.14]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.98 0.26 [0.70,2.22]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.80,1.58]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.10 [0.84,1.41]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.07 [0.88,1.26]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.90,1.18]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.92,1.14]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.98 0.26 [0.70,2.22]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.13 [0.80,1.58]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.10 [0.84,1.41]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.07 [0.88,1.26]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.05 [0.90,1.18]
200 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.04 [0.92,1.14]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.99 0.20 [0.75,1.90]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.10 [0.85,1.40]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.07 [0.88,1.28]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.05 [0.91,1.17]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.93,1.12]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.09]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.99 0.20 [0.75,1.90]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.10 [0.85,1.40]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.07 [0.88,1.28]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.05 [0.91,1.17]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.93,1.12]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.09]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.99 0.20 [0.75,1.90]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.10 [0.85,1.40]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.07 [0.88,1.28]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.05 [0.91,1.17]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.93,1.12]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.09]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.99 0.20 [0.75,1.90]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.10 [0.85,1.40]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.07 [0.88,1.28]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.05 [0.91,1.17]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.93,1.12]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.09]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.99 0.20 [0.75,1.90]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.10 [0.85,1.40]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.07 [0.88,1.28]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.05 [0.91,1.17]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.93,1.12]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.09]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.9% 0.99 0.20 [0.75,1.90]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99.5% 1.00 0.10 [0.85,1.40]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 99% 1.00 0.07 [0.88,1.28]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 97.5% 1.00 0.05 [0.91,1.17]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 95% 1.00 0.04 [0.93,1.12]
400 years 0.1-0.1-0.88-5 90% 1.00 0.03 [0.94,1.09]