Why Risk is so Hard to Measure
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VaR and ES
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Overlapping comparisons
Accuracy
Setup
The number of simulations is 2e7, and this is done across a range of \(alpha\) and \(N\). Distributions are t, Pareto and t-garch.
Student-t VaR
VaR t
N
|
alpha
|
p
|
bias
|
se
|
99% conf
|
200 days
|
2
|
99.9%
|
0.79
|
2.05
|
[0.19,6.31]
|
200 days
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.78
|
4.60
|
[0.42,14.20]
|
200 days
|
2
|
99%
|
1.26
|
0.67
|
[0.50,4.46]
|
200 days
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.09
|
0.29
|
[0.60,2.21]
|
200 days
|
2
|
95%
|
1.04
|
0.20
|
[0.66,1.71]
|
200 days
|
2
|
90%
|
1.02
|
0.15
|
[0.69,1.50]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
0.78
|
0.79
|
[0.25,4.39]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.50
|
1.53
|
[0.49,8.47]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.19
|
0.48
|
[0.56,3.36]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.07
|
0.24
|
[0.64,1.94]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.04
|
0.17
|
[0.69,1.59]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.02
|
0.14
|
[0.71,1.44]
|
200 days
|
3
|
99.9%
|
0.78
|
0.55
|
[0.31,3.45]
|
200 days
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.37
|
0.96
|
[0.53,6.04]
|
200 days
|
3
|
99%
|
1.15
|
0.38
|
[0.60,2.81]
|
200 days
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.06
|
0.21
|
[0.67,1.78]
|
200 days
|
3
|
95%
|
1.03
|
0.15
|
[0.71,1.52]
|
200 days
|
3
|
90%
|
1.02
|
0.13
|
[0.72,1.40]
|
200 days
|
4
|
99.9%
|
0.80
|
0.37
|
[0.38,2.58]
|
200 days
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.25
|
0.57
|
[0.59,4.02]
|
200 days
|
4
|
99%
|
1.11
|
0.29
|
[0.64,2.28]
|
200 days
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.04
|
0.17
|
[0.70,1.62]
|
200 days
|
4
|
95%
|
1.02
|
0.13
|
[0.73,1.43]
|
200 days
|
4
|
90%
|
1.02
|
0.12
|
[0.74,1.36]
|
200 days
|
5
|
99.9%
|
0.82
|
0.30
|
[0.43,2.19]
|
200 days
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.20
|
0.43
|
[0.63,3.20]
|
200 days
|
5
|
99%
|
1.09
|
0.24
|
[0.67,2.03]
|
200 days
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.04
|
0.15
|
[0.72,1.54]
|
200 days
|
5
|
95%
|
1.02
|
0.12
|
[0.74,1.39]
|
200 days
|
5
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.11
|
[0.74,1.33]
|
200 days
|
6
|
99.9%
|
0.83
|
0.26
|
[0.46,1.97]
|
200 days
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.16
|
0.36
|
[0.65,2.77]
|
200 days
|
6
|
99%
|
1.08
|
0.22
|
[0.69,1.88]
|
200 days
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.03
|
0.14
|
[0.73,1.49]
|
200 days
|
6
|
95%
|
1.02
|
0.12
|
[0.75,1.37]
|
200 days
|
6
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.11
|
[0.75,1.32]
|
300 days
|
2
|
99.9%
|
0.97
|
2.09
|
[0.23,7.76]
|
300 days
|
2
|
99.5%
|
2.18
|
4.71
|
[0.52,17.45]
|
300 days
|
2
|
99%
|
1.15
|
0.43
|
[0.55,3.02]
|
300 days
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.10
|
0.24
|
[0.67,1.97]
|
300 days
|
2
|
95%
|
1.03
|
0.16
|
[0.71,1.53]
|
300 days
|
2
|
90%
|
1.02
|
0.12
|
[0.74,1.38]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
0.92
|
0.95
|
[0.30,5.16]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.77
|
1.83
|
[0.59,9.96]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.11
|
0.33
|
[0.61,2.46]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.08
|
0.20
|
[0.71,1.76]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.02
|
0.14
|
[0.73,1.44]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.11
|
[0.76,1.34]
|
300 days
|
3
|
99.9%
|
0.90
|
0.63
|
[0.36,3.95]
|
300 days
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.58
|
1.10
|
[0.63,6.90]
|
300 days
|
3
|
99%
|
1.09
|
0.27
|
[0.64,2.16]
|
300 days
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.07
|
0.17
|
[0.73,1.64]
|
300 days
|
3
|
95%
|
1.02
|
0.12
|
[0.75,1.39]
|
300 days
|
3
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.11
|
[0.77,1.31]
|
300 days
|
4
|
99.9%
|
0.90
|
0.41
|
[0.44,2.86]
|
300 days
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.40
|
0.63
|
[0.68,4.45]
|
300 days
|
4
|
99%
|
1.07
|
0.21
|
[0.69,1.85]
|
300 days
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.06
|
0.14
|
[0.76,1.51]
|
300 days
|
4
|
95%
|
1.02
|
0.11
|
[0.77,1.34]
|
300 days
|
4
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.10
|
[0.78,1.28]
|
300 days
|
5
|
99.9%
|
0.90
|
0.32
|
[0.49,2.38]
|
300 days
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.31
|
0.47
|
[0.71,3.47]
|
300 days
|
5
|
99%
|
1.06
|
0.18
|
[0.72,1.70]
|
300 days
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.05
|
0.13
|
[0.78,1.45]
|
300 days
|
5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.10
|
[0.78,1.31]
|
300 days
|
5
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.09
|
[0.79,1.27]
|
300 days
|
6
|
99.9%
|
0.90
|
0.27
|
[0.52,2.11]
|
300 days
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.27
|
0.38
|
[0.73,2.97]
|
300 days
|
6
|
99%
|
1.05
|
0.16
|
[0.73,1.62]
|
300 days
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.04
|
0.12
|
[0.79,1.41]
|
300 days
|
6
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.10
|
[0.79,1.29]
|
300 days
|
6
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.09
|
[0.79,1.26]
|
2 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.25
|
4.31
|
[0.30,10.02]
|
2 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.41
|
0.74
|
[0.57,4.95]
|
2 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.09
|
0.28
|
[0.62,2.18]
|
2 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.06
|
0.17
|
[0.72,1.62]
|
2 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.02
|
0.12
|
[0.76,1.38]
|
2 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.09
|
[0.79,1.28]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.13
|
1.14
|
[0.38,6.33]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.30
|
0.51
|
[0.63,3.63]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.06
|
0.22
|
[0.67,1.89]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.05
|
0.14
|
[0.75,1.50]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.10
|
[0.78,1.32]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.09
|
[0.81,1.25]
|
2 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.07
|
0.75
|
[0.44,4.69]
|
2 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.24
|
0.40
|
[0.67,2.98]
|
2 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.05
|
0.19
|
[0.70,1.73]
|
2 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.04
|
0.12
|
[0.78,1.43]
|
2 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.09
|
[0.80,1.29]
|
2 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.08
|
[0.81,1.23]
|
2 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.03
|
0.46
|
[0.51,3.25]
|
2 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.18
|
0.29
|
[0.72,2.35]
|
2 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.04
|
0.15
|
[0.74,1.55]
|
2 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.03
|
0.11
|
[0.80,1.35]
|
2 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.08
|
[0.82,1.25]
|
2 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.83,1.21]
|
2 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.35
|
[0.56,2.64]
|
2 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.14
|
0.23
|
[0.75,2.06]
|
2 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.03
|
0.13
|
[0.76,1.47]
|
2 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.03
|
0.09
|
[0.82,1.31]
|
2 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.08
|
[0.83,1.23]
|
2 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.83,1.20]
|
2 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.29
|
[0.60,2.31]
|
2 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.13
|
0.20
|
[0.77,1.90]
|
2 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.03
|
0.12
|
[0.78,1.42]
|
2 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.03
|
0.09
|
[0.83,1.29]
|
2 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.83,1.21]
|
2 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.84,1.19]
|
4 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.77
|
3.77
|
[0.43,14.13]
|
4 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.08
|
0.28
|
[0.62,2.16]
|
4 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.04
|
0.18
|
[0.70,1.65]
|
4 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.11
|
[0.78,1.36]
|
4 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.08
|
[0.82,1.25]
|
4 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.85,1.19]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.49
|
1.51
|
[0.51,8.37]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.06
|
0.22
|
[0.68,1.87]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.03
|
0.15
|
[0.74,1.51]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.09
|
[0.81,1.29]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.84,1.21]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.86,1.17]
|
4 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.36
|
0.93
|
[0.56,5.91]
|
4 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.05
|
0.18
|
[0.71,1.70]
|
4 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.03
|
0.12
|
[0.77,1.43]
|
4 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.08
|
[0.82,1.25]
|
4 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.85,1.19]
|
4 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.86,1.16]
|
4 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.24
|
0.54
|
[0.63,3.87]
|
4 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.04
|
0.14
|
[0.76,1.53]
|
4 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.02
|
0.10
|
[0.80,1.34]
|
4 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.84,1.21]
|
4 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.17]
|
4 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.87,1.14]
|
4 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.18
|
0.40
|
[0.67,3.04]
|
4 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.12
|
[0.78,1.44]
|
4 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.02
|
0.09
|
[0.82,1.29]
|
4 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.06
|
[0.86,1.19]
|
4 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.87,1.15]
|
4 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.88,1.14]
|
4 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.15
|
0.32
|
[0.70,2.60]
|
4 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.11
|
[0.80,1.38]
|
4 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.08
|
[0.83,1.26]
|
4 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.06
|
[0.86,1.18]
|
4 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.88,1.14]
|
4 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.88,1.13]
|
10 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.40
|
0.74
|
[0.58,4.92]
|
10 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.05
|
0.16
|
[0.74,1.60]
|
10 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.02
|
0.11
|
[0.79,1.34]
|
10 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.85,1.21]
|
10 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.88,1.15]
|
10 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.11]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.29
|
0.50
|
[0.64,3.59]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.04
|
0.13
|
[0.78,1.46]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.09
|
[0.82,1.28]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.17]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.89,1.13]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.10]
|
10 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.23
|
0.39
|
[0.69,2.92]
|
10 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.04
|
0.11
|
[0.81,1.38]
|
10 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.08
|
[0.84,1.23]
|
10 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.05
|
[0.88,1.15]
|
10 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.11]
|
10 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.10]
|
10 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.16
|
0.27
|
[0.74,2.27]
|
10 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.09
|
[0.84,1.30]
|
10 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.06
|
[0.86,1.19]
|
10 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.13]
|
10 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.10]
|
10 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.09]
|
10 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.13
|
0.21
|
[0.78,1.97]
|
10 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.02
|
0.08
|
[0.86,1.25]
|
10 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.06
|
[0.88,1.16]
|
10 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
10 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.09]
|
10 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.08]
|
10 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.11
|
0.18
|
[0.80,1.80]
|
10 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.02
|
0.07
|
[0.87,1.22]
|
10 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.15]
|
10 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.11]
|
10 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.09]
|
10 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.08]
|
50 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.05
|
0.16
|
[0.74,1.59]
|
50 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.86,1.20]
|
50 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.13]
|
50 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.08]
|
50 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.06]
|
50 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.05]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.04
|
0.13
|
[0.78,1.45]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.05
|
[0.88,1.16]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.11]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.05]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
50 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.03
|
0.11
|
[0.81,1.37]
|
50 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.05
|
[0.90,1.14]
|
50 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.09]
|
50 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.06]
|
50 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.05]
|
50 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
50 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.03
|
0.08
|
[0.85,1.28]
|
50 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.04
|
[0.92,1.11]
|
50 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.08]
|
50 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.05]
|
50 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
50 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
50 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.02
|
0.07
|
[0.87,1.23]
|
50 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
50 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
50 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
50 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
50 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
50 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.02
|
0.06
|
[0.89,1.20]
|
50 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.08]
|
50 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
50 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
50 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
50 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.04]
|
200 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.84,1.22]
|
200 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.09]
|
200 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.06]
|
200 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
200 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.17]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.05]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.14]
|
200 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
200 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
200 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.11]
|
200 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
200 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.04]
|
200 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.03]
|
200 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
200 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
200 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.08]
|
200 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
200 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.88,1.15]
|
400 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.06]
|
400 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
400 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
400 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.05]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.04]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.10]
|
400 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
400 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
400 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
400 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
400 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.03]
|
400 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
400 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
400 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
400 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
400 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
Student-t ES
ES t
N
|
alpha
|
p
|
bias
|
se
|
99% conf
|
200 days
|
2
|
99.9%
|
0.40
|
1.02
|
[0.09,3.15]
|
200 days
|
2
|
99.5%
|
0.89
|
2.29
|
[0.21,7.06]
|
200 days
|
2
|
99%
|
0.94
|
1.66
|
[0.28,5.65]
|
200 days
|
2
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
1.09
|
[0.39,4.11]
|
200 days
|
2
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.79
|
[0.48,3.28]
|
200 days
|
2
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.59
|
[0.56,2.68]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
0.47
|
0.48
|
[0.15,2.63]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
0.89
|
0.91
|
[0.29,5.03]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
99%
|
0.94
|
0.67
|
[0.37,3.96]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
0.97
|
0.44
|
[0.48,2.88]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.32
|
[0.56,2.32]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.24
|
[0.63,1.95]
|
200 days
|
3
|
99.9%
|
0.52
|
0.36
|
[0.20,2.29]
|
200 days
|
3
|
99.5%
|
0.90
|
0.63
|
[0.35,3.96]
|
200 days
|
3
|
99%
|
0.94
|
0.47
|
[0.43,3.13]
|
200 days
|
3
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.32
|
[0.53,2.32]
|
200 days
|
3
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.24
|
[0.61,1.92]
|
200 days
|
3
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.18
|
[0.67,1.66]
|
200 days
|
4
|
99.9%
|
0.59
|
0.27
|
[0.28,1.91]
|
200 days
|
4
|
99.5%
|
0.91
|
0.42
|
[0.43,2.92]
|
200 days
|
4
|
99%
|
0.95
|
0.32
|
[0.51,2.37]
|
200 days
|
4
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.22
|
[0.60,1.85]
|
200 days
|
4
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.17
|
[0.66,1.60]
|
200 days
|
4
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.14
|
[0.71,1.44]
|
200 days
|
5
|
99.9%
|
0.64
|
0.23
|
[0.34,1.72]
|
200 days
|
5
|
99.5%
|
0.92
|
0.33
|
[0.48,2.46]
|
200 days
|
5
|
99%
|
0.95
|
0.26
|
[0.55,2.04]
|
200 days
|
5
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.18
|
[0.64,1.65]
|
200 days
|
5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.15
|
[0.69,1.47]
|
200 days
|
5
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.12
|
[0.73,1.36]
|
200 days
|
6
|
99.9%
|
0.67
|
0.21
|
[0.38,1.60]
|
200 days
|
6
|
99.5%
|
0.92
|
0.29
|
[0.52,2.19]
|
200 days
|
6
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.23
|
[0.58,1.85]
|
200 days
|
6
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.16
|
[0.66,1.55]
|
200 days
|
6
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.13
|
[0.71,1.41]
|
200 days
|
6
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.11
|
[0.74,1.32]
|
300 days
|
2
|
99.9%
|
0.48
|
1.05
|
[0.12,3.87]
|
300 days
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.09
|
2.34
|
[0.26,8.68]
|
300 days
|
2
|
99%
|
0.96
|
1.17
|
[0.34,4.91]
|
300 days
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.82
|
[0.46,3.80]
|
300 days
|
2
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.56
|
[0.54,2.88]
|
300 days
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.42
|
[0.61,2.38]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
0.55
|
0.57
|
[0.18,3.09]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.05
|
1.08
|
[0.35,5.91]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.56
|
[0.42,3.42]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.39
|
[0.54,2.64]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.27
|
[0.61,2.06]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.20
|
[0.68,1.76]
|
300 days
|
3
|
99.9%
|
0.60
|
0.42
|
[0.24,2.62]
|
300 days
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.72
|
[0.41,4.52]
|
300 days
|
3
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.39
|
[0.49,2.71]
|
300 days
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.27
|
[0.60,2.14]
|
300 days
|
3
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.19
|
[0.66,1.73]
|
300 days
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.15
|
[0.71,1.52]
|
300 days
|
4
|
99.9%
|
0.66
|
0.30
|
[0.32,2.12]
|
300 days
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.02
|
0.46
|
[0.50,3.24]
|
300 days
|
4
|
99%
|
0.97
|
0.27
|
[0.56,2.09]
|
300 days
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.19
|
[0.66,1.73]
|
300 days
|
4
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.14
|
[0.71,1.47]
|
300 days
|
4
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.11
|
[0.75,1.35]
|
300 days
|
5
|
99.9%
|
0.71
|
0.25
|
[0.38,1.86]
|
300 days
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.36
|
[0.55,2.67]
|
300 days
|
5
|
99%
|
0.97
|
0.22
|
[0.61,1.82]
|
300 days
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.16
|
[0.70,1.56]
|
300 days
|
5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.12
|
[0.74,1.37]
|
300 days
|
5
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.10
|
[0.78,1.29]
|
300 days
|
6
|
99.9%
|
0.73
|
0.22
|
[0.42,1.72]
|
300 days
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.30
|
[0.58,2.35]
|
300 days
|
6
|
99%
|
0.97
|
0.19
|
[0.64,1.68]
|
300 days
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.14
|
[0.72,1.47]
|
300 days
|
6
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.11
|
[0.76,1.32]
|
300 days
|
6
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.09
|
[0.79,1.25]
|
2 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
0.63
|
2.15
|
[0.15,5.00]
|
2 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.05
|
2.45
|
[0.32,6.33]
|
2 years
|
2
|
99%
|
0.98
|
1.41
|
[0.40,4.10]
|
2 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.95
|
[0.53,3.13]
|
2 years
|
2
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.66
|
[0.60,2.47]
|
2 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.48
|
[0.67,2.08]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
0.67
|
0.68
|
[0.23,3.79]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.72
|
[0.42,4.31]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.43
|
[0.50,2.85]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.29
|
[0.61,2.21]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.21
|
[0.68,1.80]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.15
|
[0.73,1.57]
|
2 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
0.71
|
0.49
|
[0.29,3.11]
|
2 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.02
|
0.50
|
[0.48,3.35]
|
2 years
|
3
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.31
|
[0.56,2.29]
|
2 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.21
|
[0.66,1.83]
|
2 years
|
3
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.15
|
[0.72,1.54]
|
2 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.11
|
[0.77,1.39]
|
2 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
0.76
|
0.34
|
[0.38,2.40]
|
2 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.33
|
[0.57,2.47]
|
2 years
|
4
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.21
|
[0.63,1.81]
|
2 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.15
|
[0.72,1.52]
|
2 years
|
4
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.11
|
[0.77,1.35]
|
2 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.80,1.26]
|
2 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
0.79
|
0.28
|
[0.44,2.07]
|
2 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.26
|
[0.61,2.09]
|
2 years
|
5
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.17
|
[0.67,1.61]
|
2 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
[0.75,1.41]
|
2 years
|
5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.09
|
[0.79,1.28]
|
2 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.82,1.22]
|
2 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
0.81
|
0.24
|
[0.48,1.87]
|
2 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.22
|
[0.65,1.89]
|
2 years
|
6
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.15
|
[0.70,1.50]
|
2 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.11
|
[0.77,1.34]
|
2 years
|
6
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.08
|
[0.81,1.24]
|
2 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.83,1.19]
|
4 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
0.89
|
1.88
|
[0.22,7.06]
|
4 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
0.97
|
0.91
|
[0.41,4.08]
|
4 years
|
2
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.66
|
[0.50,3.23]
|
4 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
0.99
|
0.43
|
[0.61,2.45]
|
4 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.31
|
[0.68,2.05]
|
4 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.23
|
[0.74,1.77]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
0.89
|
0.90
|
[0.30,5.01]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
0.98
|
0.43
|
[0.50,2.84]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.31
|
[0.59,2.27]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
0.99
|
0.20
|
[0.69,1.78]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.15
|
[0.75,1.54]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.11
|
[0.80,1.39]
|
4 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
0.90
|
0.61
|
[0.37,3.92]
|
4 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
0.98
|
0.30
|
[0.57,2.27]
|
4 years
|
3
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.22
|
[0.65,1.87]
|
4 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
0.99
|
0.14
|
[0.73,1.52]
|
4 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.11
|
[0.79,1.36]
|
4 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.83,1.26]
|
4 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
0.91
|
0.40
|
[0.47,2.86]
|
4 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
0.98
|
0.20
|
[0.64,1.79]
|
4 years
|
4
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.15
|
[0.71,1.54]
|
4 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.79,1.33]
|
4 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.83,1.24]
|
4 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.86,1.18]
|
4 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
0.92
|
0.31
|
[0.53,2.38]
|
4 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
0.98
|
0.16
|
[0.69,1.59]
|
4 years
|
5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.12
|
[0.75,1.40]
|
4 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.81,1.26]
|
4 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.85,1.19]
|
4 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.87,1.15]
|
4 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
0.93
|
0.26
|
[0.57,2.11]
|
4 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
0.98
|
0.14
|
[0.72,1.48]
|
4 years
|
6
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.11
|
[0.77,1.34]
|
4 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.83,1.22]
|
4 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.86,1.17]
|
4 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.88,1.13]
|
10 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.05
|
1.73
|
[0.33,6.30]
|
10 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.68
|
[0.53,3.11]
|
10 years
|
2
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.47
|
[0.61,2.44]
|
10 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.31
|
[0.71,1.94]
|
10 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.22
|
[0.77,1.67]
|
10 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.16
|
[0.82,1.49]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.03
|
0.72
|
[0.42,4.29]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.28
|
[0.63,2.18]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.20
|
[0.70,1.77]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.78,1.48]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.83,1.33]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.86,1.23]
|
10 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.02
|
0.49
|
[0.50,3.31]
|
10 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.20
|
[0.68,1.79]
|
10 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.14
|
[0.75,1.51]
|
10 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.82,1.31]
|
10 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.86,1.22]
|
10 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.16]
|
10 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.32
|
[0.59,2.43]
|
10 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.75,1.48]
|
10 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.80,1.31]
|
10 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.86,1.20]
|
10 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.14]
|
10 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.11]
|
10 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.24
|
[0.65,2.04]
|
10 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.11
|
[0.79,1.36]
|
10 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.83,1.24]
|
10 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.88,1.16]
|
10 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.12]
|
10 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.09]
|
10 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.20
|
[0.68,1.83]
|
10 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.81,1.30]
|
10 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.85,1.20]
|
10 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.14]
|
10 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.10]
|
10 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.08]
|
50 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.68
|
[0.54,3.10]
|
50 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.31
|
[0.72,1.93]
|
50 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.22
|
[0.78,1.66]
|
50 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.14
|
[0.84,1.43]
|
50 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.88,1.31]
|
50 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.90,1.22]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.28
|
[0.63,2.17]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
[0.79,1.46]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.84,1.31]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.89,1.19]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.13]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.10]
|
50 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.19
|
[0.69,1.78]
|
50 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.83,1.30]
|
50 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.20]
|
50 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
50 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
50 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.07]
|
50 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.76,1.47]
|
50 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.18]
|
50 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.13]
|
50 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.08]
|
50 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
50 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
50 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.80,1.34]
|
50 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.14]
|
50 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.10]
|
50 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
50 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.05]
|
50 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
50 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.83,1.28]
|
50 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
50 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.08]
|
50 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
50 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
50 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
200 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.31
|
[0.69,2.03]
|
200 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.14
|
[0.83,1.47]
|
200 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.87,1.34]
|
200 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.91,1.22]
|
200 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.93,1.16]
|
200 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.95,1.11]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.14
|
[0.77,1.52]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.88,1.21]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.15]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.09]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
200 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.81,1.33]
|
200 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.13]
|
200 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
200 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
200 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
200 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.86,1.20]
|
200 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.08]
|
200 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
200 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
200 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.15]
|
200 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.06]
|
200 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
200 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.12]
|
200 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.05]
|
200 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
200 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.21
|
[0.76,1.73]
|
400 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.87,1.33]
|
400 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.90,1.24]
|
400 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.93,1.15]
|
400 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.95,1.11]
|
400 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.96,1.08]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.82,1.35]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.14]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.10]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.06]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.04]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
400 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.86,1.22]
|
400 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
400 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
400 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.04]
|
400 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
400 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.13]
|
400 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
400 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
400 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
400 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.10]
|
400 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
400 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
400 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.08]
|
400 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
400 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
400 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
Pareto VaR
VaR p
N
|
alpha
|
p
|
bias
|
se
|
99% conf
|
200 days
|
2
|
99.9%
|
0.79
|
1.86
|
[0.20,6.31]
|
200 days
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.77
|
4.15
|
[0.44,14.10]
|
200 days
|
2
|
99%
|
1.25
|
0.65
|
[0.52,4.39]
|
200 days
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.08
|
0.27
|
[0.64,2.15]
|
200 days
|
2
|
95%
|
1.04
|
0.17
|
[0.72,1.63]
|
200 days
|
2
|
90%
|
1.02
|
0.11
|
[0.79,1.37]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
0.78
|
0.78
|
[0.27,4.37]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.49
|
1.49
|
[0.52,8.32]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.18
|
0.46
|
[0.60,3.27]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.06
|
0.21
|
[0.70,1.84]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.03
|
0.13
|
[0.77,1.48]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.09
|
[0.83,1.29]
|
200 days
|
3
|
99.9%
|
0.79
|
0.54
|
[0.34,3.41]
|
200 days
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.35
|
0.93
|
[0.58,5.84]
|
200 days
|
3
|
99%
|
1.14
|
0.35
|
[0.65,2.68]
|
200 days
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.05
|
0.17
|
[0.74,1.66]
|
200 days
|
3
|
95%
|
1.02
|
0.11
|
[0.80,1.38]
|
200 days
|
3
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.85,1.24]
|
200 days
|
4
|
99.9%
|
0.82
|
0.35
|
[0.44,2.51]
|
200 days
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.23
|
0.52
|
[0.66,3.76]
|
200 days
|
4
|
99%
|
1.09
|
0.24
|
[0.72,2.10]
|
200 days
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.03
|
0.12
|
[0.80,1.47]
|
200 days
|
4
|
95%
|
1.02
|
0.08
|
[0.85,1.28]
|
200 days
|
4
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.17]
|
200 days
|
5
|
99.9%
|
0.84
|
0.26
|
[0.52,2.09]
|
200 days
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.16
|
0.37
|
[0.72,2.88]
|
200 days
|
5
|
99%
|
1.07
|
0.18
|
[0.77,1.81]
|
200 days
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.03
|
0.10
|
[0.83,1.36]
|
200 days
|
5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.06
|
[0.88,1.22]
|
200 days
|
5
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.14]
|
200 days
|
6
|
99.9%
|
0.86
|
0.22
|
[0.58,1.85]
|
200 days
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.13
|
0.28
|
[0.76,2.42]
|
200 days
|
6
|
99%
|
1.06
|
0.15
|
[0.81,1.64]
|
200 days
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.08
|
[0.86,1.29]
|
200 days
|
6
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.05
|
[0.90,1.18]
|
200 days
|
6
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.04
|
[0.92,1.11]
|
300 days
|
2
|
99.9%
|
0.97
|
2.13
|
[0.24,7.71]
|
300 days
|
2
|
99.5%
|
2.17
|
4.75
|
[0.53,17.24]
|
300 days
|
2
|
99%
|
1.15
|
0.42
|
[0.57,2.97]
|
300 days
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.10
|
0.22
|
[0.70,1.91]
|
300 days
|
2
|
95%
|
1.03
|
0.13
|
[0.76,1.47]
|
300 days
|
2
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.09
|
[0.82,1.29]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
0.92
|
0.92
|
[0.32,5.14]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.75
|
1.76
|
[0.61,9.78]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.11
|
0.31
|
[0.64,2.39]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.07
|
0.17
|
[0.75,1.68]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.02
|
0.11
|
[0.80,1.36]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.85,1.22]
|
300 days
|
3
|
99.9%
|
0.91
|
0.61
|
[0.39,3.91]
|
300 days
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.55
|
1.05
|
[0.66,6.69]
|
300 days
|
3
|
99%
|
1.09
|
0.25
|
[0.69,2.07]
|
300 days
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.06
|
0.14
|
[0.79,1.54]
|
300 days
|
3
|
95%
|
1.02
|
0.09
|
[0.83,1.29]
|
300 days
|
3
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.06
|
[0.88,1.18]
|
300 days
|
4
|
99.9%
|
0.91
|
0.38
|
[0.49,2.78]
|
300 days
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.36
|
0.58
|
[0.73,4.16]
|
300 days
|
4
|
99%
|
1.06
|
0.18
|
[0.76,1.72]
|
300 days
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.04
|
0.10
|
[0.84,1.38]
|
300 days
|
4
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.87,1.21]
|
300 days
|
4
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.13]
|
300 days
|
5
|
99.9%
|
0.92
|
0.29
|
[0.56,2.27]
|
300 days
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.26
|
0.40
|
[0.78,3.13]
|
300 days
|
5
|
99%
|
1.04
|
0.14
|
[0.80,1.55]
|
300 days
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.03
|
0.08
|
[0.87,1.30]
|
300 days
|
5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.17]
|
300 days
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.92,1.11]
|
300 days
|
6
|
99.9%
|
0.92
|
0.23
|
[0.62,1.98]
|
300 days
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.21
|
0.30
|
[0.81,2.59]
|
300 days
|
6
|
99%
|
1.04
|
0.11
|
[0.83,1.44]
|
300 days
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.03
|
0.07
|
[0.89,1.24]
|
300 days
|
6
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.14]
|
300 days
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.09]
|
2 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.25
|
2.71
|
[0.31,9.99]
|
2 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.40
|
0.73
|
[0.58,4.90]
|
2 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.08
|
0.27
|
[0.63,2.15]
|
2 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.05
|
0.16
|
[0.75,1.59]
|
2 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.02
|
0.10
|
[0.80,1.33]
|
2 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.85,1.21]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.13
|
1.12
|
[0.39,6.30]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.29
|
0.50
|
[0.65,3.57]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.06
|
0.21
|
[0.69,1.85]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.04
|
0.12
|
[0.79,1.45]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.08
|
[0.84,1.26]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.05
|
[0.88,1.16]
|
2 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.08
|
0.73
|
[0.46,4.64]
|
2 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.23
|
0.38
|
[0.70,2.89]
|
2 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.05
|
0.17
|
[0.74,1.67]
|
2 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.03
|
0.10
|
[0.82,1.36]
|
2 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.86,1.21]
|
2 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.90,1.13]
|
2 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.03
|
0.44
|
[0.55,3.16]
|
2 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.16
|
0.26
|
[0.76,2.22]
|
2 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.03
|
0.13
|
[0.80,1.47]
|
2 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.08
|
[0.86,1.26]
|
2 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.15]
|
2 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.10]
|
2 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.32
|
[0.62,2.51]
|
2 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.12
|
0.19
|
[0.81,1.89]
|
2 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.03
|
0.10
|
[0.83,1.36]
|
2 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.06
|
[0.89,1.20]
|
2 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
2 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.08]
|
2 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.25
|
[0.68,2.16]
|
2 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.10
|
0.16
|
[0.83,1.70]
|
2 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.02
|
0.08
|
[0.86,1.29]
|
2 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.05
|
[0.91,1.17]
|
2 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.10]
|
2 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.07]
|
4 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.77
|
3.57
|
[0.43,14.17]
|
4 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.08
|
0.27
|
[0.63,2.15]
|
4 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.04
|
0.17
|
[0.71,1.64]
|
4 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.10
|
[0.80,1.33]
|
4 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.85,1.21]
|
4 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.14]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.49
|
1.49
|
[0.51,8.31]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.06
|
0.21
|
[0.69,1.85]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.03
|
0.14
|
[0.76,1.48]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.08
|
[0.83,1.26]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.06
|
[0.88,1.17]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.11]
|
4 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.35
|
0.92
|
[0.57,5.84]
|
4 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.05
|
0.17
|
[0.74,1.67]
|
4 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.02
|
0.11
|
[0.80,1.39]
|
4 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.86,1.21]
|
4 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.90,1.14]
|
4 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
4 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.23
|
0.52
|
[0.66,3.76]
|
4 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.13
|
[0.79,1.47]
|
4 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.02
|
0.08
|
[0.84,1.28]
|
4 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.15]
|
4 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.10]
|
4 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
4 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.16
|
0.37
|
[0.72,2.88]
|
4 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.10
|
[0.83,1.36]
|
4 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.87,1.22]
|
4 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
4 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.08]
|
4 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
4 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.13
|
0.28
|
[0.76,2.42]
|
4 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.02
|
0.08
|
[0.86,1.29]
|
4 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.18]
|
4 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.10]
|
4 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.07]
|
4 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
10 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.40
|
0.73
|
[0.58,4.91]
|
10 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.05
|
0.16
|
[0.74,1.59]
|
10 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.02
|
0.10
|
[0.79,1.34]
|
10 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.06
|
[0.86,1.20]
|
10 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.13]
|
10 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.08]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.29
|
0.50
|
[0.65,3.57]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.04
|
0.13
|
[0.79,1.45]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.08
|
[0.83,1.26]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.15]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.92,1.10]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
10 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.23
|
0.38
|
[0.70,2.89]
|
10 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.10
|
[0.82,1.36]
|
10 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.86,1.21]
|
10 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.13]
|
10 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.08]
|
10 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
10 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.16
|
0.26
|
[0.76,2.22]
|
10 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.02
|
0.08
|
[0.86,1.26]
|
10 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.16]
|
10 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
10 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
10 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
10 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.12
|
0.19
|
[0.80,1.89]
|
10 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.02
|
0.06
|
[0.89,1.20]
|
10 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
10 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
10 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
10 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
10 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.10
|
0.16
|
[0.83,1.70]
|
10 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.02
|
0.05
|
[0.91,1.17]
|
10 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.10]
|
10 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
10 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.04]
|
10 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.03]
|
50 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.05
|
0.16
|
[0.74,1.59]
|
50 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.06
|
[0.86,1.20]
|
50 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.13]
|
50 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.08]
|
50 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.05]
|
50 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.04]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.04
|
0.13
|
[0.79,1.45]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.15]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.92,1.10]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
50 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.03
|
0.10
|
[0.82,1.36]
|
50 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.13]
|
50 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.08]
|
50 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
50 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
50 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
50 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.02
|
0.08
|
[0.86,1.26]
|
50 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
50 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
50 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.04]
|
50 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.03]
|
50 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
50 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.02
|
0.06
|
[0.89,1.20]
|
50 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
50 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
50 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
50 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
50 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
50 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.02
|
0.05
|
[0.90,1.17]
|
50 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
50 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
50 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.03]
|
50 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
50 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
200 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.07
|
[0.84,1.22]
|
200 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.09]
|
200 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
200 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.04]
|
200 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.03]
|
200 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.17]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
200 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.14]
|
200 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
200 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
200 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
200 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.92,1.10]
|
200 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
200 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
200 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
200 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.08]
|
200 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
200 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
200 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
200 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.07]
|
200 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
200 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
200 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.15]
|
400 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
400 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
400 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.03]
|
400 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.10]
|
400 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
400 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
400 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
400 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
400 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
400 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[1.00,1.00]
|
400 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
400 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[1.00,1.00]
|
Pareto ES
ES p
N
|
alpha
|
p
|
bias
|
se
|
99% conf
|
200 days
|
2
|
99.9%
|
0.40
|
0.93
|
[0.10,3.15]
|
200 days
|
2
|
99.5%
|
0.89
|
2.08
|
[0.22,7.05]
|
200 days
|
2
|
99%
|
0.94
|
1.51
|
[0.30,5.62]
|
200 days
|
2
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.98
|
[0.41,4.07]
|
200 days
|
2
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.71
|
[0.51,3.21]
|
200 days
|
2
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.51
|
[0.60,2.59]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
0.47
|
0.47
|
[0.16,2.62]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
0.89
|
0.89
|
[0.31,4.99]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
99%
|
0.94
|
0.65
|
[0.39,3.92]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.42
|
[0.51,2.82]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.30
|
[0.60,2.25]
|
200 days
|
2.5
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.21
|
[0.69,1.85]
|
200 days
|
3
|
99.9%
|
0.53
|
0.36
|
[0.22,2.28]
|
200 days
|
3
|
99.5%
|
0.90
|
0.62
|
[0.38,3.89]
|
200 days
|
3
|
99%
|
0.95
|
0.45
|
[0.47,3.06]
|
200 days
|
3
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.29
|
[0.59,2.25]
|
200 days
|
3
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.21
|
[0.67,1.84]
|
200 days
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.15
|
[0.74,1.56]
|
200 days
|
4
|
99.9%
|
0.61
|
0.26
|
[0.33,1.88]
|
200 days
|
4
|
99.5%
|
0.92
|
0.39
|
[0.50,2.82]
|
200 days
|
4
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.29
|
[0.58,2.26]
|
200 days
|
4
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.19
|
[0.68,1.74]
|
200 days
|
4
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.13
|
[0.75,1.49]
|
200 days
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.81,1.32]
|
200 days
|
5
|
99.9%
|
0.68
|
0.21
|
[0.42,1.67]
|
200 days
|
5
|
99.5%
|
0.93
|
0.29
|
[0.57,2.31]
|
200 days
|
5
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.22
|
[0.65,1.90]
|
200 days
|
5
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.14
|
[0.74,1.52]
|
200 days
|
5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.10
|
[0.80,1.35]
|
200 days
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.85,1.23]
|
200 days
|
6
|
99.9%
|
0.72
|
0.18
|
[0.48,1.54]
|
200 days
|
6
|
99.5%
|
0.94
|
0.24
|
[0.63,2.01]
|
200 days
|
6
|
99%
|
0.97
|
0.18
|
[0.70,1.69]
|
200 days
|
6
|
97.5%
|
0.99
|
0.11
|
[0.78,1.40]
|
200 days
|
6
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.08
|
[0.83,1.27]
|
200 days
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.88,1.18]
|
300 days
|
2
|
99.9%
|
0.49
|
1.06
|
[0.12,3.85]
|
300 days
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.09
|
2.38
|
[0.27,8.62]
|
300 days
|
2
|
99%
|
0.96
|
1.18
|
[0.34,4.87]
|
300 days
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.82
|
[0.47,3.75]
|
300 days
|
2
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.55
|
[0.56,2.83]
|
300 days
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.40
|
[0.64,2.31]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
0.55
|
0.55
|
[0.19,3.08]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.05
|
1.05
|
[0.36,5.87]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.54
|
[0.44,3.38]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.37
|
[0.57,2.59]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.25
|
[0.65,2.00]
|
300 days
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.17
|
[0.73,1.68]
|
300 days
|
3
|
99.9%
|
0.60
|
0.41
|
[0.26,2.61]
|
300 days
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.70
|
[0.44,4.46]
|
300 days
|
3
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.37
|
[0.52,2.66]
|
300 days
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.25
|
[0.64,2.07]
|
300 days
|
3
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.17
|
[0.71,1.66]
|
300 days
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
[0.78,1.44]
|
300 days
|
4
|
99.9%
|
0.68
|
0.29
|
[0.37,2.09]
|
300 days
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.02
|
0.43
|
[0.55,3.12]
|
300 days
|
4
|
99%
|
0.97
|
0.24
|
[0.62,2.00]
|
300 days
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.16
|
[0.73,1.64]
|
300 days
|
4
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.11
|
[0.78,1.39]
|
300 days
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.84,1.26]
|
300 days
|
5
|
99.9%
|
0.73
|
0.23
|
[0.45,1.81]
|
300 days
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.32
|
[0.62,2.50]
|
300 days
|
5
|
99%
|
0.97
|
0.18
|
[0.69,1.71]
|
300 days
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
[0.78,1.45]
|
300 days
|
5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.08
|
[0.83,1.27]
|
300 days
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.18]
|
300 days
|
6
|
99.9%
|
0.77
|
0.19
|
[0.52,1.65]
|
300 days
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.25
|
[0.68,2.16]
|
300 days
|
6
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.15
|
[0.73,1.55]
|
300 days
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.81,1.35]
|
300 days
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.86,1.21]
|
300 days
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.14]
|
2 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
0.63
|
1.35
|
[0.15,5.00]
|
2 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.05
|
1.57
|
[0.33,6.30]
|
2 years
|
2
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.92
|
[0.41,4.08]
|
2 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.62
|
[0.54,3.10]
|
2 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.43
|
[0.62,2.43]
|
2 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.31
|
[0.70,2.02]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
0.68
|
0.67
|
[0.23,3.78]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.71
|
[0.43,4.28]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.42
|
[0.51,2.82]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.28
|
[0.63,2.17]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.19
|
[0.71,1.75]
|
2 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.14
|
[0.77,1.51]
|
2 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
0.72
|
0.48
|
[0.30,3.10]
|
2 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.02
|
0.48
|
[0.50,3.30]
|
2 years
|
3
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.29
|
[0.58,2.25]
|
2 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.19
|
[0.70,1.78]
|
2 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.76,1.49]
|
2 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.82,1.33]
|
2 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
0.77
|
0.33
|
[0.42,2.37]
|
2 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.31
|
[0.61,2.39]
|
2 years
|
4
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.19
|
[0.68,1.75]
|
2 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
[0.77,1.46]
|
2 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.82,1.29]
|
2 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.19]
|
2 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
0.81
|
0.25
|
[0.50,2.01]
|
2 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.23
|
[0.68,1.98]
|
2 years
|
5
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.14
|
[0.74,1.53]
|
2 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.82,1.32]
|
2 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.86,1.20]
|
2 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.90,1.14]
|
2 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
0.84
|
0.21
|
[0.56,1.80]
|
2 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.18
|
[0.72,1.76]
|
2 years
|
6
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.11
|
[0.78,1.41]
|
2 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.85,1.25]
|
2 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.88,1.16]
|
2 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.92,1.11]
|
4 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
0.89
|
1.78
|
[0.22,7.09]
|
4 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
0.98
|
0.86
|
[0.41,4.09]
|
4 years
|
2
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.63
|
[0.50,3.23]
|
4 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.41
|
[0.62,2.44]
|
4 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.29
|
[0.70,2.03]
|
4 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.21
|
[0.76,1.73]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
0.89
|
0.90
|
[0.31,4.99]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
0.98
|
0.42
|
[0.51,2.82]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.30
|
[0.60,2.25]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.19
|
[0.71,1.76]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.14
|
[0.77,1.51]
|
4 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.83,1.35]
|
4 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
0.90
|
0.61
|
[0.38,3.90]
|
4 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
0.98
|
0.29
|
[0.58,2.25]
|
4 years
|
3
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.21
|
[0.66,1.84]
|
4 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.76,1.49]
|
4 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.82,1.33]
|
4 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.86,1.22]
|
4 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
0.92
|
0.39
|
[0.49,2.82]
|
4 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
0.98
|
0.19
|
[0.68,1.74]
|
4 years
|
4
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.14
|
[0.75,1.49]
|
4 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.82,1.29]
|
4 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.19]
|
4 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.13]
|
4 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
0.93
|
0.29
|
[0.57,2.31]
|
4 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
0.98
|
0.14
|
[0.74,1.53]
|
4 years
|
5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.10
|
[0.80,1.35]
|
4 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.86,1.20]
|
4 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.90,1.14]
|
4 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
4 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
0.94
|
0.24
|
[0.63,2.01]
|
4 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
0.99
|
0.11
|
[0.78,1.41]
|
4 years
|
6
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.08
|
[0.83,1.27]
|
4 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.88,1.16]
|
4 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.11]
|
4 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
10 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.05
|
1.50
|
[0.33,6.31]
|
10 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.60
|
[0.54,3.10]
|
10 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.42
|
[0.62,2.43]
|
10 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.27
|
[0.72,1.93]
|
10 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.19
|
[0.78,1.66]
|
10 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.14
|
[0.83,1.47]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.03
|
0.71
|
[0.43,4.27]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.28
|
[0.63,2.16]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.19
|
[0.70,1.75]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
[0.79,1.46]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.84,1.31]
|
10 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.88,1.21]
|
10 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.02
|
0.49
|
[0.50,3.30]
|
10 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.19
|
[0.69,1.78]
|
10 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.76,1.49]
|
10 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.83,1.29]
|
10 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.88,1.19]
|
10 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.13]
|
10 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.31
|
[0.61,2.39]
|
10 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
[0.77,1.46]
|
10 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.82,1.29]
|
10 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.88,1.17]
|
10 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.11]
|
10 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.08]
|
10 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.23
|
[0.68,1.98]
|
10 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.82,1.32]
|
10 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.86,1.20]
|
10 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
10 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.08]
|
10 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
10 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.18
|
[0.72,1.76]
|
10 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.85,1.25]
|
10 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.88,1.16]
|
10 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.10]
|
10 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.06]
|
10 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
50 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.56
|
[0.54,3.10]
|
50 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.26
|
[0.72,1.93]
|
50 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.18
|
[0.78,1.66]
|
50 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
[0.84,1.42]
|
50 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.88,1.30]
|
50 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.91,1.21]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.28
|
[0.63,2.17]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
[0.79,1.46]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.84,1.31]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.19]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.92,1.13]
|
50 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.09]
|
50 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.19
|
[0.69,1.78]
|
50 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.83,1.29]
|
50 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.19]
|
50 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.92,1.12]
|
50 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.08]
|
50 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
50 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.77,1.46]
|
50 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.88,1.17]
|
50 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.11]
|
50 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
50 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
50 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
50 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.82,1.32]
|
50 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
50 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.08]
|
50 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
50 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
50 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
50 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.85,1.25]
|
50 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.10]
|
50 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
50 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
50 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
50 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.27
|
[0.69,2.03]
|
200 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.83,1.47]
|
200 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.87,1.33]
|
200 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.91,1.21]
|
200 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.93,1.15]
|
200 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.95,1.11]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.77,1.51]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.88,1.21]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.14]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.09]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.06]
|
200 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.04]
|
200 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.82,1.33]
|
200 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.13]
|
200 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
200 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
200 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.04]
|
200 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.03]
|
200 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.19]
|
200 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.08]
|
200 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.05]
|
200 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.90,1.14]
|
200 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
200 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
200 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
200 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.11]
|
200 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
200 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
200 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
200 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
200 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
2
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.19
|
[0.76,1.73]
|
400 years
|
2
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.87,1.33]
|
400 years
|
2
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.90,1.24]
|
400 years
|
2
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.93,1.15]
|
400 years
|
2
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.95,1.11]
|
400 years
|
2
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.08]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.82,1.35]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.14]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.10]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.06]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.04]
|
400 years
|
2.5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.03]
|
400 years
|
3
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.86,1.22]
|
400 years
|
3
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
400 years
|
3
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
400 years
|
3
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.04]
|
400 years
|
3
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.03]
|
400 years
|
3
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
4
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.13]
|
400 years
|
4
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.05]
|
400 years
|
4
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.04]
|
400 years
|
4
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
4
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
4
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.92,1.09]
|
400 years
|
5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
400 years
|
5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
400 years
|
5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
6
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
400 years
|
6
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.97,1.03]
|
400 years
|
6
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.98,1.02]
|
400 years
|
6
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
6
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
400 years
|
6
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
[0.99,1.01]
|
t-GARCH VaR
VaR g
N
|
alpha
|
p
|
bias
|
se
|
99% conf
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.57
|
0.34
|
[0.22,2.26]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.97
|
0.58
|
[0.37,3.82]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.51
|
[0.42,3.45]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.44
|
[0.48,3.13]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.40
|
[0.53,2.88]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.34
|
[0.56,2.59]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.57
|
0.34
|
[0.22,2.26]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.97
|
0.58
|
[0.37,3.82]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.51
|
[0.42,3.45]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.44
|
[0.48,3.13]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.40
|
[0.53,2.88]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.34
|
[0.56,2.59]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.57
|
0.34
|
[0.22,2.26]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.97
|
0.58
|
[0.37,3.82]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.51
|
[0.42,3.45]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.44
|
[0.48,3.13]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.40
|
[0.53,2.88]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.34
|
[0.56,2.59]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.57
|
0.34
|
[0.22,2.26]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.97
|
0.58
|
[0.37,3.82]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.51
|
[0.42,3.45]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.44
|
[0.48,3.13]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.40
|
[0.53,2.88]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.34
|
[0.56,2.59]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.57
|
0.34
|
[0.22,2.26]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.97
|
0.58
|
[0.37,3.82]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.51
|
[0.42,3.45]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.44
|
[0.48,3.13]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.40
|
[0.53,2.88]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.34
|
[0.56,2.59]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.57
|
0.34
|
[0.22,2.26]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.97
|
0.58
|
[0.37,3.82]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.51
|
[0.42,3.45]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.44
|
[0.48,3.13]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.40
|
[0.53,2.88]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.34
|
[0.56,2.59]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.66
|
0.40
|
[0.26,2.63]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.12
|
0.68
|
[0.44,4.44]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.49
|
[0.47,3.35]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.43
|
[0.54,3.13]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.36
|
[0.57,2.71]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.30
|
[0.61,2.35]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.66
|
0.40
|
[0.26,2.63]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.12
|
0.68
|
[0.44,4.44]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.49
|
[0.47,3.35]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.43
|
[0.54,3.13]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.36
|
[0.57,2.71]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.30
|
[0.61,2.35]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.66
|
0.40
|
[0.26,2.63]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.12
|
0.68
|
[0.44,4.44]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.49
|
[0.47,3.35]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.43
|
[0.54,3.13]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.36
|
[0.57,2.71]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.30
|
[0.61,2.35]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.66
|
0.40
|
[0.26,2.63]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.12
|
0.68
|
[0.44,4.44]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.49
|
[0.47,3.35]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.43
|
[0.54,3.13]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.36
|
[0.57,2.71]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.30
|
[0.61,2.35]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.66
|
0.40
|
[0.26,2.63]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.12
|
0.68
|
[0.44,4.44]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.49
|
[0.47,3.35]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.43
|
[0.54,3.13]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.36
|
[0.57,2.71]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.30
|
[0.61,2.35]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.66
|
0.40
|
[0.26,2.63]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.12
|
0.68
|
[0.44,4.44]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.98
|
0.49
|
[0.47,3.35]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.43
|
[0.54,3.13]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.36
|
[0.57,2.71]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.30
|
[0.61,2.35]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.80
|
0.48
|
[0.32,3.14]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.06
|
0.56
|
[0.49,3.81]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.44
|
[0.52,3.17]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.37
|
[0.60,2.82]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.30
|
[0.63,2.37]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.23
|
[0.67,1.99]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.80
|
0.48
|
[0.32,3.14]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.06
|
0.56
|
[0.49,3.81]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.44
|
[0.52,3.17]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.37
|
[0.60,2.82]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.30
|
[0.63,2.37]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.23
|
[0.67,1.99]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.80
|
0.48
|
[0.32,3.14]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.06
|
0.56
|
[0.49,3.81]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.44
|
[0.52,3.17]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.37
|
[0.60,2.82]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.30
|
[0.63,2.37]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.23
|
[0.67,1.99]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.80
|
0.48
|
[0.32,3.14]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.06
|
0.56
|
[0.49,3.81]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.44
|
[0.52,3.17]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.37
|
[0.60,2.82]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.30
|
[0.63,2.37]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.23
|
[0.67,1.99]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.80
|
0.48
|
[0.32,3.14]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.06
|
0.56
|
[0.49,3.81]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.44
|
[0.52,3.17]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.37
|
[0.60,2.82]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.30
|
[0.63,2.37]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.23
|
[0.67,1.99]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.80
|
0.48
|
[0.32,3.14]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.06
|
0.56
|
[0.49,3.81]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.44
|
[0.52,3.17]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.02
|
0.37
|
[0.60,2.82]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.30
|
[0.63,2.37]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.01
|
0.23
|
[0.67,1.99]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.60
|
[0.42,3.94]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.44
|
[0.55,3.15]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.37
|
[0.60,2.82]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.28
|
[0.66,2.28]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.21
|
[0.70,1.88]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.15
|
[0.74,1.60]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.60
|
[0.42,3.94]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.44
|
[0.55,3.15]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.37
|
[0.60,2.82]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.28
|
[0.66,2.28]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.21
|
[0.70,1.88]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.15
|
[0.74,1.60]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.60
|
[0.42,3.94]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.44
|
[0.55,3.15]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.37
|
[0.60,2.82]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.28
|
[0.66,2.28]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.21
|
[0.70,1.88]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.15
|
[0.74,1.60]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.60
|
[0.42,3.94]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.44
|
[0.55,3.15]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.37
|
[0.60,2.82]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.28
|
[0.66,2.28]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.21
|
[0.70,1.88]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.15
|
[0.74,1.60]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.60
|
[0.42,3.94]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.44
|
[0.55,3.15]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.37
|
[0.60,2.82]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.28
|
[0.66,2.28]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.21
|
[0.70,1.88]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.15
|
[0.74,1.60]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.60
|
[0.42,3.94]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.44
|
[0.55,3.15]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.37
|
[0.60,2.82]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.28
|
[0.66,2.28]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.01
|
0.21
|
[0.70,1.88]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.15
|
[0.74,1.60]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.08
|
0.55
|
[0.54,3.78]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.34
|
[0.65,2.68]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.26
|
[0.70,2.17]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.16
|
[0.75,1.67]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
[0.79,1.44]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.81,1.32]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.08
|
0.55
|
[0.54,3.78]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.34
|
[0.65,2.68]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.26
|
[0.70,2.17]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.16
|
[0.75,1.67]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
[0.79,1.44]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.81,1.32]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.08
|
0.55
|
[0.54,3.78]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.34
|
[0.65,2.68]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.26
|
[0.70,2.17]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.16
|
[0.75,1.67]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
[0.79,1.44]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.81,1.32]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.08
|
0.55
|
[0.54,3.78]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.34
|
[0.65,2.68]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.26
|
[0.70,2.17]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.16
|
[0.75,1.67]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
[0.79,1.44]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.81,1.32]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.08
|
0.55
|
[0.54,3.78]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.34
|
[0.65,2.68]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.26
|
[0.70,2.17]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.16
|
[0.75,1.67]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
[0.79,1.44]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.81,1.32]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.08
|
0.55
|
[0.54,3.78]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.03
|
0.34
|
[0.65,2.68]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.01
|
0.26
|
[0.70,2.17]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.01
|
0.16
|
[0.75,1.67]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.12
|
[0.79,1.44]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.81,1.32]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.03
|
0.32
|
[0.69,2.59]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.14
|
[0.79,1.57]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.83,1.35]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.21]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.15]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.03
|
0.32
|
[0.69,2.59]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.14
|
[0.79,1.57]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.83,1.35]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.21]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.15]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.03
|
0.32
|
[0.69,2.59]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.14
|
[0.79,1.57]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.83,1.35]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.21]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.15]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.03
|
0.32
|
[0.69,2.59]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.14
|
[0.79,1.57]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.83,1.35]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.21]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.15]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.03
|
0.32
|
[0.69,2.59]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.14
|
[0.79,1.57]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.83,1.35]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.21]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.15]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.03
|
0.32
|
[0.69,2.59]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.01
|
0.14
|
[0.79,1.57]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.83,1.35]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.87,1.21]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.89,1.15]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.12]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.15
|
[0.80,1.62]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.88,1.20]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.14]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.15
|
[0.80,1.62]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.88,1.20]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.14]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.15
|
[0.80,1.62]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.88,1.20]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.14]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.15
|
[0.80,1.62]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.88,1.20]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.14]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.15
|
[0.80,1.62]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.88,1.20]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.14]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.01
|
0.15
|
[0.80,1.62]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.06
|
[0.88,1.20]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.90,1.14]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.94,1.07]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.84,1.35]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.13]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.84,1.35]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.13]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.84,1.35]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.13]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.84,1.35]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.13]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.84,1.35]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.13]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
1.00
|
0.09
|
[0.84,1.35]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.91,1.13]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.93,1.09]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.95,1.06]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.02
|
[0.96,1.05]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.01
|
[0.96,1.04]
|
t-GARCH ES
ES g
N
|
alpha
|
p
|
bias
|
se
|
99% conf
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.40
|
0.24
|
[0.15,1.57]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.66
|
0.39
|
[0.25,2.59]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.73
|
0.41
|
[0.31,2.72]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.82
|
0.41
|
[0.38,2.81]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.87
|
0.40
|
[0.43,2.80]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.90
|
0.38
|
[0.48,2.72]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.40
|
0.24
|
[0.15,1.57]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.66
|
0.39
|
[0.25,2.59]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.73
|
0.41
|
[0.31,2.72]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.82
|
0.41
|
[0.38,2.81]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.87
|
0.40
|
[0.43,2.80]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.90
|
0.38
|
[0.48,2.72]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.40
|
0.24
|
[0.15,1.57]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.66
|
0.39
|
[0.25,2.59]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.73
|
0.41
|
[0.31,2.72]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.82
|
0.41
|
[0.38,2.81]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.87
|
0.40
|
[0.43,2.80]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.90
|
0.38
|
[0.48,2.72]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.40
|
0.24
|
[0.15,1.57]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.66
|
0.39
|
[0.25,2.59]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.73
|
0.41
|
[0.31,2.72]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.82
|
0.41
|
[0.38,2.81]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.87
|
0.40
|
[0.43,2.80]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.90
|
0.38
|
[0.48,2.72]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.40
|
0.24
|
[0.15,1.57]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.66
|
0.39
|
[0.25,2.59]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.73
|
0.41
|
[0.31,2.72]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.82
|
0.41
|
[0.38,2.81]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.87
|
0.40
|
[0.43,2.80]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.90
|
0.38
|
[0.48,2.72]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.40
|
0.24
|
[0.15,1.57]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.66
|
0.39
|
[0.25,2.59]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.73
|
0.41
|
[0.31,2.72]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.82
|
0.41
|
[0.38,2.81]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.87
|
0.40
|
[0.43,2.80]
|
200 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.90
|
0.38
|
[0.48,2.72]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.46
|
0.28
|
[0.18,1.82]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.76
|
0.46
|
[0.30,3.02]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.79
|
0.42
|
[0.35,2.84]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.88
|
0.42
|
[0.43,2.94]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.90
|
0.39
|
[0.48,2.81]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.93
|
0.36
|
[0.52,2.67]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.46
|
0.28
|
[0.18,1.82]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.76
|
0.46
|
[0.30,3.02]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.79
|
0.42
|
[0.35,2.84]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.88
|
0.42
|
[0.43,2.94]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.90
|
0.39
|
[0.48,2.81]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.93
|
0.36
|
[0.52,2.67]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.46
|
0.28
|
[0.18,1.82]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.76
|
0.46
|
[0.30,3.02]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.79
|
0.42
|
[0.35,2.84]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.88
|
0.42
|
[0.43,2.94]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.90
|
0.39
|
[0.48,2.81]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.93
|
0.36
|
[0.52,2.67]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.46
|
0.28
|
[0.18,1.82]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.76
|
0.46
|
[0.30,3.02]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.79
|
0.42
|
[0.35,2.84]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.88
|
0.42
|
[0.43,2.94]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.90
|
0.39
|
[0.48,2.81]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.93
|
0.36
|
[0.52,2.67]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.46
|
0.28
|
[0.18,1.82]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.76
|
0.46
|
[0.30,3.02]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.79
|
0.42
|
[0.35,2.84]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.88
|
0.42
|
[0.43,2.94]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.90
|
0.39
|
[0.48,2.81]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.93
|
0.36
|
[0.52,2.67]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.46
|
0.28
|
[0.18,1.82]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.76
|
0.46
|
[0.30,3.02]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.79
|
0.42
|
[0.35,2.84]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.88
|
0.42
|
[0.43,2.94]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.90
|
0.39
|
[0.48,2.81]
|
300 days
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.93
|
0.36
|
[0.52,2.67]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.55
|
0.33
|
[0.22,2.18]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.82
|
0.45
|
[0.36,3.03]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.84
|
0.42
|
[0.41,2.90]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.92
|
0.40
|
[0.49,2.89]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.94
|
0.36
|
[0.54,2.70]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.96
|
0.32
|
[0.58,2.48]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.55
|
0.33
|
[0.22,2.18]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.82
|
0.45
|
[0.36,3.03]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.84
|
0.42
|
[0.41,2.90]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.92
|
0.40
|
[0.49,2.89]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.94
|
0.36
|
[0.54,2.70]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.96
|
0.32
|
[0.58,2.48]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.55
|
0.33
|
[0.22,2.18]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.82
|
0.45
|
[0.36,3.03]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.84
|
0.42
|
[0.41,2.90]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.92
|
0.40
|
[0.49,2.89]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.94
|
0.36
|
[0.54,2.70]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.96
|
0.32
|
[0.58,2.48]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.55
|
0.33
|
[0.22,2.18]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.82
|
0.45
|
[0.36,3.03]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.84
|
0.42
|
[0.41,2.90]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.92
|
0.40
|
[0.49,2.89]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.94
|
0.36
|
[0.54,2.70]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.96
|
0.32
|
[0.58,2.48]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.55
|
0.33
|
[0.22,2.18]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.82
|
0.45
|
[0.36,3.03]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.84
|
0.42
|
[0.41,2.90]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.92
|
0.40
|
[0.49,2.89]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.94
|
0.36
|
[0.54,2.70]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.96
|
0.32
|
[0.58,2.48]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.55
|
0.33
|
[0.22,2.18]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.82
|
0.45
|
[0.36,3.03]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.84
|
0.42
|
[0.41,2.90]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.92
|
0.40
|
[0.49,2.89]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.94
|
0.36
|
[0.54,2.70]
|
2 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.96
|
0.32
|
[0.58,2.48]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.70
|
0.41
|
[0.29,2.73]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.86
|
0.42
|
[0.43,2.92]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.91
|
0.40
|
[0.49,2.87]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.95
|
0.35
|
[0.56,2.66]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.97
|
0.31
|
[0.61,2.41]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.98
|
0.25
|
[0.66,2.15]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.70
|
0.41
|
[0.29,2.73]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.86
|
0.42
|
[0.43,2.92]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.91
|
0.40
|
[0.49,2.87]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.95
|
0.35
|
[0.56,2.66]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.97
|
0.31
|
[0.61,2.41]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.98
|
0.25
|
[0.66,2.15]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.70
|
0.41
|
[0.29,2.73]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.86
|
0.42
|
[0.43,2.92]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.91
|
0.40
|
[0.49,2.87]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.95
|
0.35
|
[0.56,2.66]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.97
|
0.31
|
[0.61,2.41]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.98
|
0.25
|
[0.66,2.15]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.70
|
0.41
|
[0.29,2.73]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.86
|
0.42
|
[0.43,2.92]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.91
|
0.40
|
[0.49,2.87]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.95
|
0.35
|
[0.56,2.66]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.97
|
0.31
|
[0.61,2.41]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.98
|
0.25
|
[0.66,2.15]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.70
|
0.41
|
[0.29,2.73]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.86
|
0.42
|
[0.43,2.92]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.91
|
0.40
|
[0.49,2.87]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.95
|
0.35
|
[0.56,2.66]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.97
|
0.31
|
[0.61,2.41]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.98
|
0.25
|
[0.66,2.15]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.70
|
0.41
|
[0.29,2.73]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.86
|
0.42
|
[0.43,2.92]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.91
|
0.40
|
[0.49,2.87]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.95
|
0.35
|
[0.56,2.66]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.97
|
0.31
|
[0.61,2.41]
|
4 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.98
|
0.25
|
[0.66,2.15]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.85
|
0.45
|
[0.40,3.08]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.94
|
0.39
|
[0.54,2.86]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.34
|
[0.59,2.61]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.27
|
[0.66,2.25]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.22
|
[0.70,1.96]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.17
|
[0.74,1.74]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.85
|
0.45
|
[0.40,3.08]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.94
|
0.39
|
[0.54,2.86]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.34
|
[0.59,2.61]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.27
|
[0.66,2.25]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.22
|
[0.70,1.96]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.17
|
[0.74,1.74]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.85
|
0.45
|
[0.40,3.08]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.94
|
0.39
|
[0.54,2.86]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.34
|
[0.59,2.61]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.27
|
[0.66,2.25]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.22
|
[0.70,1.96]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.17
|
[0.74,1.74]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.85
|
0.45
|
[0.40,3.08]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.94
|
0.39
|
[0.54,2.86]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.34
|
[0.59,2.61]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.27
|
[0.66,2.25]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.22
|
[0.70,1.96]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.17
|
[0.74,1.74]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.85
|
0.45
|
[0.40,3.08]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.94
|
0.39
|
[0.54,2.86]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.34
|
[0.59,2.61]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.27
|
[0.66,2.25]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.22
|
[0.70,1.96]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.17
|
[0.74,1.74]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.85
|
0.45
|
[0.40,3.08]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.94
|
0.39
|
[0.54,2.86]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.96
|
0.34
|
[0.59,2.61]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
0.98
|
0.27
|
[0.66,2.25]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
0.99
|
0.22
|
[0.70,1.96]
|
10 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
0.99
|
0.17
|
[0.74,1.74]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.95
|
0.38
|
[0.57,2.82]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.99
|
0.25
|
[0.70,2.16]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.19
|
[0.74,1.86]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.80,1.56]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.83,1.41]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.85,1.30]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.95
|
0.38
|
[0.57,2.82]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.99
|
0.25
|
[0.70,2.16]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.19
|
[0.74,1.86]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.80,1.56]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.83,1.41]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.85,1.30]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.95
|
0.38
|
[0.57,2.82]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.99
|
0.25
|
[0.70,2.16]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.19
|
[0.74,1.86]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.80,1.56]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.83,1.41]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.85,1.30]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.95
|
0.38
|
[0.57,2.82]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.99
|
0.25
|
[0.70,2.16]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.19
|
[0.74,1.86]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.80,1.56]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.83,1.41]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.85,1.30]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.95
|
0.38
|
[0.57,2.82]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.99
|
0.25
|
[0.70,2.16]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.19
|
[0.74,1.86]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.80,1.56]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.83,1.41]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.85,1.30]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.95
|
0.38
|
[0.57,2.82]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
0.99
|
0.25
|
[0.70,2.16]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
0.99
|
0.19
|
[0.74,1.86]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.80,1.56]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.83,1.41]
|
50 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.08
|
[0.85,1.30]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.98
|
0.26
|
[0.70,2.22]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.80,1.58]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.84,1.41]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.88,1.26]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.90,1.18]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.92,1.14]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.98
|
0.26
|
[0.70,2.22]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.80,1.58]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.84,1.41]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.88,1.26]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.90,1.18]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.92,1.14]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.98
|
0.26
|
[0.70,2.22]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.80,1.58]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.84,1.41]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.88,1.26]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.90,1.18]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.92,1.14]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.98
|
0.26
|
[0.70,2.22]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.80,1.58]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.84,1.41]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.88,1.26]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.90,1.18]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.92,1.14]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.98
|
0.26
|
[0.70,2.22]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.80,1.58]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.84,1.41]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.88,1.26]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.90,1.18]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.92,1.14]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.98
|
0.26
|
[0.70,2.22]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.13
|
[0.80,1.58]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.84,1.41]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.88,1.26]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.90,1.18]
|
200 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.92,1.14]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.99
|
0.20
|
[0.75,1.90]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.85,1.40]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.88,1.28]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.91,1.17]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.93,1.12]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.09]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.99
|
0.20
|
[0.75,1.90]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.85,1.40]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.88,1.28]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.91,1.17]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.93,1.12]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.09]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.99
|
0.20
|
[0.75,1.90]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.85,1.40]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.88,1.28]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.91,1.17]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.93,1.12]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.09]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.99
|
0.20
|
[0.75,1.90]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.85,1.40]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.88,1.28]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.91,1.17]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.93,1.12]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.09]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.99
|
0.20
|
[0.75,1.90]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.85,1.40]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.88,1.28]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.91,1.17]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.93,1.12]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.09]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.9%
|
0.99
|
0.20
|
[0.75,1.90]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99.5%
|
1.00
|
0.10
|
[0.85,1.40]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
99%
|
1.00
|
0.07
|
[0.88,1.28]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
97.5%
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
[0.91,1.17]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
95%
|
1.00
|
0.04
|
[0.93,1.12]
|
400 years
|
0.1-0.1-0.88-5
|
90%
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
[0.94,1.09]
|