Systemic consequences of Brexit
February 23, 2017
I got to present on the systemic risk consequences of Brexit in a SUERF conference.
I got to present on the systemic risk consequences of Brexit in a SUERF conference. The slides can be downloaded here. The main conclusions are:
- Systemic consequences of Brexit possible but unlikely
- Systemic crises happen when we suddenly question existing assumptions for how the world works
- It is hard to identify what will go wrong, in advance
- Soft Brexit may increase systemic risk
- Brexit may result in lower systemic risk if the regulatory landscape fragments and globalism is reduced
- Hard Brexit and a tough EU stand in the negotiations may lower systemic risk
- Unknown unknowns are the threat
- They may lurk in the legal plumbing and equivalence
Models and risk
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